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December-16-2008
Alaska's Southcentral gas situation is grim
America's Natural gas trade $5-6/MMbtu to 2013 WoodMac:
Baxter shale Wyoming Cretaceous 2.19 MMcfd
Energy fuels widening U.S., Canadian economic relationship
Jurassic Haynesville/Bossier shale Texas East
December-16-2008
Ghana pipeline gets first Nigerian gas
Marcellus shale Pennsylvania 30 MMcfd -7 wells
Sakhalin Energy Starts Year-Round Crude Oil Exports
U.S. energy stocks recover but Gas Oil Low


Baxter shale Wyoming Cretaceous 2.19 MMcfd
Oil & Gas Journal / Dec. 8, 2008

Devon Energy Corp. started production at the 5-3 Horseshoe Basin Unit well in the Vermillion Creek area of the Greater Green River basin in Sweetwater County, Wyo.  Output from Cretaceous Baxter shale totaled 21.7 MMcf gas and 3,836 bbl of condensate in the first 6.5 days on line, and the current rate is 2.19 MMcfd and 412 b/d of condensate, said 50% working interest owner Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp., Denver. TD is 13,534 ft.  Three wells have been drilled, and Devon is acquiring 25 sq miles of 3D seismic in the area. The outlook for 2009 is for horizontal drilling in the Baxter, said Kodiak.
Jurassic Haynesville/Bossier shale Texas East
December 8, OGJ.com
GMX Resources Inc., Oklahoma City, said its Callison-9H well in Harrison County, Tex., stabilized at 7.7 MMcfd of gas on a 22/64-in. choke with 5,200 psi flowing casing pressure from Jurassic Haynesville/Bossier shale. The company ran an eight-stage frac in the well’s 2,200-ft lateral, its shortest planned lateral in the play. GMX has 100% working interest.  GMX is drilling the Bosh-1l H and Baldwin-I7 H wells and expects to spud a fourth well within 2 weeks. The next 16 wells are expected to average 3,800-ft laterals and 11-12 frac stages. The company plans to drill 45 wells in 2009.

The Belin-1 well in the Hilltop area of the deep Bossier play has the potential to be Gastar Exploration Ltd.’s best well to date in terms of flow rate and reserves, the company said. Logs indicated 150 net ft of pay in the middle and lower Bossier formations. TD is 18,800 ft.  The well’s three Lower Bossier pay zones have the highest measured porosity, up to 25%, of any well drilled by Gastar in the play.  Belin- also encountered two middle Bossier sands, including the Lanier sand, in a downdip location in a new fault block with indicated pay based on log analysis. The well, to be on line within 30 days, is to be completed in the two deepest zones first.  The Lanier sand has been shown to be productive in a downthrown fault block from the Wildman Trust-3 well, where Lanier was recently recompleted at an initial 21 MMcfd.
Marcellus shale Pennsylvania 30 MMcfd -7 wells
December 8, OGJ.com
Range Resources Corp., Fort Worth, said seven wells totaling 30 MMcfd from the Marcellus shale are connected to Pennsylvania’s first large-scale gas processing plant, operated by MarkWest Energy Partners LP.  Range plans to begin flowing more wells as two more gas processing plants are completed next year (OGJ Online, Oct. 22, 2008).  The company plans to enter 2009 with three horizontal rigs and boost that to six by the end of the year. It expects yearend 2009 production to reach anet 80-100 MMcfed.

Talisman Energy Inc., Calgary, deferred a five-well Marcellus shale pilot in New York pending environmental and regulatory reviews and shifted its focus to Pennsylvania.  The company’s Fortuna Energy Inc. unit holds almost 120,000 acres of state controlled land in north-central Pennsylvania and is drilling a pilot in an area where it owns 19,200 net acres prospective for development. It was completing its first operated horizontal well this month.  Talisman Energy’s holding totals 640,000 net acres in both states in the emerging overpressured Marcellus play. It estimates gas in place in the Marcellus at 20-100 bcf/sq mile at 2,500-6,000 ft.

America's Natural gas trade $5-6/MMbtu to 2013 WoodMac:
OGJ.com 12/8/08
US natural gas is expected to trade at $5-6/MMbtu over the next 5 years, said an executive of Wood Mackenzie Ltd., Edinburgh, at a recent energy forum sponsored by that firm in Houston.
Jen Snyder, head of WoodMac North American Gas Research, told forum participants that the industry’s successful development of shale gas plays has positioned the market for “significant potential over-supply.” Snyder rejects a popular theory that gas prices will settle eventually at the marginal cost of the most expensive shale plays. That represents “a mistaken reading of the current and future environment,” she said. “Simply stated, there is no requirement for the rapid near-to-midterm development of some of the more expensive or challenging shales such as the Marcellus or Horn River; the market can be adequately supplied without these volumes.”
She sees “sufficient volumes available at a development break-even price of $5.50/MMbtu or below.” That conclusion is based on declining demand due to “a prolonged recession” to fourth-quarter 2010, new wind and coal-fired capacity coming online to generate electricity, and “a significant drop in drilling activity” because of a lower commodity price. “We have also factored in the positive impact on break-even costs due to cost reductions associated with this drilling slow-down and continued optimization of drilling solutions at those plays that will continue to be aggressively developed,” Snyder said.
Furthermore, she said, “The results of our Global Gas Optimization Model point to significant import volumes of LNG over the next few years, despite the recent growth in unconventionals.” Existing offtake agreements for some suppliers “make diversions from North America unlikely,” Snyder said. “In addition, other suppliers with flexible LNG will want to avoid jeopardizing long-term contract prices in Europe and Asia, through a further weakening of spot prices in these areas.” Qatar in particular will likely direct some of its new LNG volumes to the US market “where there are no long-term contract implications and a large and liquid market to absorb the volumes,” Snyder said.
WoodMac’s projected gas price of $5-6/MMbtu would not be a floor price, as near-term market weakness could force prices below that range, Snyder said.
“Our near-term forecast is predicated on a normal winter. While a severe winter could tighten up the market and provide some near-term support, equally a mild winter could exacerbate the current position of over-supply and lead to prices into the $4/MMbtu range in the near term,” Snyder added. “We have also assumed that gas demand benefits from a 1 .5 bcfd switch from coal to gas-fired power generation. If this fails to materialize due to collapsing coal prices, this would further add to short-term price weakness.”

Sakhalin Energy Starts Year-Round Crude Oil Exports
Dec. 12, 2008 By Torrey Clark From Bloomberg
OAO Gazprom’s Sakhalin Energy venture began year-round oil exports today and plans to start producing liquefied natural gas in “the next few weeks” after building pipelines to the southern tip of the Pacific island.
The project will use two tankers, the Governor Farkhutdinov and Sakhalin Island, to export oil this season, Sakhalin Energy said today in an e-mailed statement.
The $22 billion project had been slated to begin year-round oil exports in 2007 and LNG exports in the second half of this year. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe’s biggest oil producer, agreed to cede control of Sakhalin-2 to Gazprom two years ago after months of pressure from environmental regulators, who threatened to shut down the project.
Gazprom owns 50 percent plus one share of Sakhalin Energy Co. Shell has 27.5 percent, Mitsui & Co. holds 12.5 percent and Mitsubishi Corp. has 10 percent. Much of the LNG will be exported to Japan, the world’s biggest buyer of the fuel. LNG is natural gas chilled to liquid form to aid transportation and storage by ocean-going tanker.

U.S. energy stocks recover but Gas Oil Low
Reuters, Friday December 12 2008 By Anna Driver HOUSTON, Dec 12 Reuters
U.S. energy company shares have rebounded from their lowest levels in years, easily outperforming the market, but hopes for more gains may be dashed as the sluggish global economy threatens to keep oil and gas prices weak.  The Standard & Poor's index of energy companies has climbed 13 percent since hitting an intraday year-low on Oct. 10, helped by a jump in crude oil prices and the sector's low valuations. In the same period, the broader Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 4 percent.  The S&P energy index, which includes companies like Exxon Mobil Corp, Chevron Corp and oilfield services giant Schlumberger Ltd, has also done better than crude oil futures, which have tumbled more than 40 percent since October.

But analysts and investors caution that the stocks' gains may not continue in coming weeks as commodity prices stay under pressure. The global economic crisis is expected to crimp demand for crude oil, and growing supplies of natural gas in the United States should weigh on prices.
OPEC is expected to announce production cuts when it meets next Wednesday, but investors should not pin their hopes on that arresting crude's slide.  "From my experience, when OPEC tries its hardest to stop oil prices from falling, that's when they have the least amount of control," said Ted Parrish, principal at Henssler Financial Group who helps manage $1.3 billion in assets.

Others noted that history shows OPEC has needed to make several production cuts before crude oil prices find a floor.  Goldman Sachs on Thursday lowered its 2009 oil price outlook to $45 a barrel from $75 and warned it may fall as low as $30, citing deterioration in global oil demand.  Even so, the bank said it sees "a growing number of signs that the oil markets may have entered the bottoming phase of the cycle." Goldman suggested investors take a defensive approach to investing; its top picks include Chevron, pipeline operator Oneok Inc and Royal Dutch Shell.

Oilfield services firms, which face exposure to project cancellations and a falling rig count, are especially vulnerable to weakness in oil and gas prices.  "These companies do extremely well when prices are in their favor," Henssler's Parrish said. "But you are going to see projects canceled if oil prices stay where they are."

SUPPLY LOOMS
Independent energy companies that have a big exposure to natural gas production may also struggle as economic woes bite into demand and supplies build.  "I don't think it's going to be a great year for natural gas," said Ray Deacon, senior analyst at Pritchard Capital Partners. "I don't see any kind of near-term recovery."  A weak economy is expected to shave 1 billion to 3 billion cubic feet per day off U.S. natural gas demand in 2009. The country uses 63 billion cubic feet every day.

On Friday, Barclays Capital cut its 2009 earnings-per-share estimates for large-cap independent oil and gas producers by 41 percent, citing expectations for a weak gas market.  "While we believe long-term investors may be rewarded for holding exploration and production shares today, we think that E&P shares are likely to be under pressure for the next several months as evidence of a gas oversupply accumulates," Barclays' Thomas Driscoll wrote in a note to clients.
Natural gas prices may fall below $4 to $5 per thousand cubic feet by mid-winter, Barclays said.
On Friday, natural gas futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 1 percent at $5.53 per million British thermal units. Crude oil futures slid 3.5 percent to $46.28 per barrel.  Exploration and production companies best suited to weather a downturn include Apache Corp and Noble Energy Inc, Barclays said.

Adding to the build-up in natural gas supplies, U.S. liquefied natural gas imports may rise in 2009 as the global credit crunch dents demand elsewhere for the fuel.  To cope with natural gas price declines, a number of U.S. energy companies have scaled back drilling budgets and idled rigs, but Barclays said more cuts are needed to balance supply and demand. (Editing by John Wallace)

Energy fuels widening U.S., Canadian economic relationship
 December 13, 2008 Houston Business Journal CALGARY, Alberta
Walk into the downtown Calgary office of U.S. Consul General Tom Huffaker, and he’ll show you his well-worn plastic bag of bitumen.  Huffaker, the U.S. government’s eyes and ears spanning a huge chunk of Canadian real estate covering two western provinces plus the expansive Northwest Territories, likes to pass around the bag containing several of the spongy, black chunks — made up of oil, sand, water and clay — as an icebreaker.

Up close, the tar-like bitumen may not seem like anything of particular value, but when complex, costly processing methods are applied, it becomes liquid gold. The resulting heavy oil extracted from the bitumen deposits in the oil sands around Fort McMurray in northeastern Alberta represents a major part of the future strategy of the United States to rely less on oil imported from Saudi Arabia or Venezuela.

In fact, Canada is already the No. 1 source of oil shipped to the U.S., accounting for nearly 20 percent of imports. Nearly 2 million barrels of crude are shipped from Canada to the U.S. each day, making up the majority of the total 3 million barrels a day of Canadian production. Only Saudi Arabia has more proven oil reserves under the ground than Canada.

Huffaker is happy to relay these types of facts to American visitors. He’ll also mention that, as the largest trading partner with the U.S., Canada ships huge volumes of natural gas and electric power south of the border each day. And millions of U.S. light bulbs run every day on nuclear power that owes its source to the province of Saskatchewan, the world’s largest uranium producer.

It’s all part of one of the most extensive trading relationships in the world. In 2007, Canada imported $220 billion worth of goods from the U.S. — its biggest trading partner — while exporting $356 billion worth of goods into the U.S., which works out to 80 percent of Canada’s total exports. The single bridge connecting Windsor, Ontario, with Detroit carries more goods back and forth each year than all of the goods shipped between Japan and the U.S.
Fueled by the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, Canada-U.S. trade now directly supports 7.1 million jobs, including 521,750 jobs in Texas. Some $12 billion in Texas exports headed north to Canada in 2007 — including $297 million worth of exports from Houston.

“Even if it’s our biggest trade relationship that doesn’t mean it can’t, and will, get bigger,” says Huffaker. “People often make a big issue about the future of that relationship when there’s going to be a new president or energy secretary, but there is always this bedrock relationship, and no matter who holds the big jobs on either side of the border, they know how important the relationship is.”

Huffaker helps U.S. companies that have recently relocated to his region of Canada deal with the governmental complexities of undertaking such a major step, and also might help stickhandle some U.S. regulatory issues for Canadian pipeline operators teaming up with U.S. partners to build projects south of the border.

“The biggest issue we deal with is the whole Canada-U.S. connection related to energy security, climate change and the oil sands. The U.S. government is pro-oil sands, but local decisions on environmental standards and carbon footprints are for Albertans and Canadians to make,” he says.

During the run-up to the hotly contested U.S. presidential election, energy was certainly on the minds of Americans when oil hit its peak of $147 a barrel in the summer. Although both Barack Obama and John McCain mentioned repeatedly about the need to wean the U.S. from its dependence on foreign oil, Huffaker and Canadian officials were confident that Canadian oil was excluded from that discussion.

“I’m pretty sure that when President-elect Obama is talking about foreign crude, he’s really talking about offshore crude, and not throwing in Canadian crude,” says Dave Collyer, president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.

“Naturally, we’re always concerned when people talk about restricting access to markets. But (Obama’s) clarifications about what he was talking about with foreign oil were certainly helpful.”

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper was quick off the mark, calling for a new climate change pact to be negotiated with the U.S. within a day of Obama’s Nov. 4 election victory — seeking to quell what was seen as a rising tide of opposition within the Obama camp about so-called “dirty oil,” in reference to Alberta’s vast oil sands deposits — that are vital to the U.S. energy supply. Obama pledged during the campaign to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, about a 15 percent reduction.

Greenhouse gas emissions related to oil sand production are about 15 percent higher than for conventional crude, according to Collyer.

While both countries are looking at setting up new market-based emission trading systems, Collyer expects that the interdependence of the two countries will push both sides toward joint discussions. Both countries seem headed toward the goal of creating a more streamlined national policy rather than depend on the potpourri of emissions plans adopted by individual Canadian provinces or U.S. states.

California, for example, has passed regulations forcing gasoline marketers to reduce carbon emissions traced all the way back to their production sources.

“At the end of the day, Canada and the U.S. want their own policies on this issue, but collaboration is important,” Collyer says. “It makes sense to look at environmental policy within the context of energy policies, and whether a cap and trade system is really the right framework. If Canada and the U.S. can come to terms on a policy that makes senses for this continent, we’ll be in better shape to negotiate internationally.”

Ghana pipeline gets first Nigerian gas
12.13.08, By Kwasi Kpodo
ACCRA, Dec 13 Reuters
A new West African gas pipeline has begun pumping Nigerian gas to Ghana, where new gas-fired power generation should start up as early as January, companies involved in the project said.  The $620 million, 678 km (420 mile) pipeline has been built to transport natural gas from Nigeria's Niger Delta to Benin, Togo and Ghana to help ease chronic power shortages.

Ghana's Volta River Authority (VRA) power utility said in a statement late on Friday that the pipeline had been successfully filled and shut in, and the company was talking to suppliers to ensure continued flow once commissioning was completed.

VRA, which produces most of Ghana's electricity from the huge Volta dam, said on its website www.vra.com that it is increasing capacity at its Takoradi thermal plant to 660 MW from 550 MW, and switching from liquid fuel to gas to cut costs. Frequent power cuts, especially in 2006, forced rolling blackouts across Ghana and reduced mining output from Africa's second biggest gold producer.
'This will ensure a reduction in the cost of production, as natural gas is cheaper than light crude oil that has been the source of fuel for the Takoradi plant since its construction 10 years ago,' VRA spokesman Kofi Asante Okai said in Friday's statement.
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Research dating from 2005 indicated switching to gas could cut fuel costs by around one-third, VRA's acting general manager for thermal generation, Richard Badger, told Reuters.

Alaska's Southcentral gas situation is grim
December 14, 2008 By Tim Bradner Alaska Journal of Commerce

Southcentral Alaska's natural gas situation is getting grim. The large producing fields in the region are being depleted faster than expected.  While there is still plenty of gas left in producing gas fields, producing companies and utilities are concerned about the “deliverability” of the fields, or the capability of the aging wells to produce enough on cold winter days to meet peak demands.

“Gas deliverability from the four largest fields in the Cook Inlet Basin has declined significantly in the last three years,” Steve Wright, Chevron Corp.'s Alaska asset manager, told the Resource Development Council Nov. 19. “These four fields - Beluga River, North Cook Inlet, McArthur River field and Kenai field - were capable of delivering up to 14 billion cubic feet per month in January 2004. At present, they are capable of producing only 9 billion cubic feet per month.”

The four fields produce about 65 percent of the natural gas production in Southcentral Alaska. The concern over deliverability was a major factor in Chevron's decision to reduce the amount of gas it will supply in its contracts with Enstar Natural Gas Co. from 2012 to 2016. “We could not document that we would have adequate deliverability to have met this commitment,” Wright said.

The heat and power in Southcentral Alaska communities won't get turned off, however. ConocoPhillips and Marathon Oil, the owners of the liquefied natural gas plant near Kenai, have pledged to backstop utilities if gas deliverability is insufficient on cold days.
Still, the underlying problem of declining reserves is getting worse, and exploration results in recent years have been modest.  “Gas exploration has not been successful. Chevron has operated six exploration wells in recent years and have had only modest success,” Wright told the RDC council.  There is good potential in the region, but the problem is that many areas with prospective geology have substantial surface occupancy issues, he said, which limits explorers' access.

Production has actually dipped below what the state Department of Natural Resources has estimated would be possible from remaining proved gas reserves in the Cook Inlet Basin, he said.

The industry isn't sitting on its hands, however. Chevron and other Cook Inlet operators are making substantial investments. Two years ago Chevron announced a $400 million program to refurbish aging oil production platforms in Cook Inlet and to stimulate new gas production. The company is carrying out that program, Wright said.
Marathon and ConocoPhillips have made separate commitments to drill new gas wells in an agreement with the state related to a two-year extension of a liquefied natural gas export license for the Kenai-area plant the two companies own.  “Our hope is that new drilling in the Beluga and Ninilchik fields will stem the decline, but we see no scenario where the decline is eliminated,” Wright said.
Chevron itself has spent $200 million over the last years in its new drilling program, which include oil as well as gas. Chevron has invested in projects in seven gas fields and two oil fields.  Results of the drilling are generally positive, but there were disappointments as well, Wright said.  “A few of our wells far exceeded expectations, some came close to what we had forecast, but a couple were expensive but poor producers,” he told the RDC. “There is a lot of stratigraphic variability in Cook Inlet. The risks and uncertainties there are not average.”  The company still expects to spend $100 million to $200 million over the next three to five years on projects, but plans are always subject to change. Given the downward shift in oil prices, “we are currently reassessing our opportunity catalogue,” Wright said.

Natural gas projects in the last year have included two new gas development wells in the Happy Valley gas field on the Kenai Peninsula, the installation of a new production pad and the testing of a new “fracture” technology to stimulate production, and three new gas wells and a compressor to boost deliverability of gas in the Ninikchik gas field, where Chevron owns 40 percent (Marathon Oil is the majority owner, at 60 percent, and operator). Other projects included two new gas wells and a workover in the Beluga River gas field, and two new production wells and the addition of compressor capability on the Steelhead platform, which produces gas.

On the oil side, Chevron has drilled two new wells in the Granite Point field from the Anna platform. These wells did not meet expectations, Wright said. Chevron also drilled one new well and two well maintenance jobs in the Swanson River oil field, and performed six well maintenance jobs in the McArthur River field.

“Gas-lift” wells, which use natural gas to lift crude oil up producing wells, were also converted to down-hole electric pumps to bring the oil up. This has the effect of freeing up gas supplies, Wright said.