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December-23-2008
Australia Chevron Picks Site for Proposed LNG Project
China starts $13.6 billion U.S. gas pipeline
Cummins Westport Order for 260 Natural Gas Engines
Northeast US Millennium pipeline First Delivery 182-Mi.
December-23-2008
Nymex Crude Breaks $34/Bbl, Demand Concerns Hold
Oil at $60-$70 Better for All Says Eni's CEO
The shock of lower oil prices
Williams Completes Pennsylvania New Jersey pipeline


Cummins Westport Order for 260 Natural Gas Engines
Dec. 22, 2008 VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA
Cummins Westport Inc. (CWI) (TSX: WPT)(NASDAQ: WPRT), a leading provider of high-performance, alternative fuel engines for the global market, announced today that North American Bus Industries, Inc. (NABI) has ordered 260 compressed natural gas (CNG) CWI ISL G engines for CompoBus buses.

"Production is underway to fill this significant order from NABI," said Guan Saw, CWI's President. "The ISL G, our flagship engine, continues to gain market share in the North American transit fleet. The ISL G offers operators the benefits of meeting EPA 2010 emissions standards today, with the robust performance and reliability they require."

The NABI CompoBus is a 45-foot vehicle made from a lightweight composite material that weighs roughly the same as the company's traditional 40-foot bus, enabling it to provide a lower operating cost per passenger mile as compared to buses with traditional steel structures.

About the Cummins Westport ISL G
The ISL G surpasses EPA 2007 phase-in levels and meets 2010 emission standards of 0.2 g/bhp-hr (grams per brake horsepower hour) NOx (nitrogen oxide) and 0.01 g/bhp-hr PM (particulate matter). Based on the Cummins ISL, the ISL G leverages Cummins' proven cooled Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) with stoichiometric combustion allowing for the use of a three way catalyst, which is maintenance free and is in common use in passenger cars. In addition to delivering ultra-low emissions, the ISL G, with ratings from 250 to 320 horsepower, delivers increased thermal efficiency and over 30% higher low-speed torque compared with today's CWI "Plus" engines. More information about the ISL G can be found at: www.cumminswestport.com/products/islg.php.

Williams Completes 1st Phase Pennsylvania New Jersey pipeline
Williams 12/22/2008
Williams has placed the first phase of its Sentinel expansion project on its Transco natural gas pipeline system into service, increasing firm transportation capacity into the northeastern U.S. by 40,000 dekatherms per day.

The Sentinel expansion project is being constructed in two phases. Phase 2 of the expansion will provide an additional 102,000 dekatherms per day and is expected to be placed into service by November 2009. The entire Sentinel expansion project is designed to increase Transco's firm transportation capacity by 142,000 dekatherms per day.

"This is a major milestone and we sincerely appreciate our customers' commitment to this project," said Phil Wright, president of Williams' natural gas pipeline business. "We look forward to placing the remaining portion of this much needed project into service and working with our customers to provide reliable natural gas service for the northeastern United States for years to come."

Phase 1 construction has included the addition of approximately four miles of 42-inch pipe in Northampton and Monroe counties, Pa., in addition to compressor station upgrades at Transco Station 195 in Delta, Pa. Phase 2 will include the addition or replacement of 14 miles of pipeline at various locations in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

Northeast US Millennium pipeline First Delivery 182-Mi.
Millennium Pipeline 12/22/2008

Millennium Pipeline Company, L.L.C. announced that its recently constructed 182-mile natural gas pipeline was placed into complete service today and deliveries of natural gas supplies to its anchor shippers have commenced.

"This is an historic day for New York State and the Northeast," said Millennium President Dick Leehr. "Many years of hard work and planning, permitting and eventual construction have finally come to fruition, enabling Millennium to deliver much-needed natural gas supplies as we enter the peak of the 2008-09 winter heating season. But the real winners are the energy users of today and tomorrow, who now have a reliable new natural gas pipeline system that will meet their growing need for clean-burning natural gas for years to come."

"It is gratifying to see that a major collaborative effort involving skilled union workers from local communities and around the country, government officials at all levels, customers, partners, contractors, vendors and many other organizations came together to achieve this common important goal of meeting the region's growing energy needs," Leehr added.

Millennium Pipeline began construction activities in 2007; however, the majority of the 30-inch-diameter mainline pipeline installation work across New York's Southern Tier and lower Hudson Valley was completed this year. Some land restoration and environmental monitoring work will extend into 2009 and beyond. More than 2,000 workers -- many hired from local communities -- were involved in construction of the pipeline.

More than 90 percent of the Millennium pipeline was installed within or adjacent to existing pipeline rights-of-way. Millennium is the centerpiece of a $1 billion investment in new energy infrastructure that includes new facilities by Empire Pipeline, Algonquin Gas Transmission and the Iroquois Gas Transmission systems.

Millennium Pipeline is anchored by its customers National Grid, Consolidated Edison of New York, Central Hudson Gas and Electric Corporation and Columbia Gas Transmission Corporation. Millennium will serve markets along its route in the Southern Tier and lower Hudson Valley as well as providing essential service to the New York City markets through its pipeline interconnections. Millennium's design will allow it to transport up to 525,400 dekatherms per day, based on market needs. Millennium is jointly owned by affiliates of NiSource Inc., National Grid and DTE Energy.

Nymex Crude Breaks $34/Bbl, Demand Concerns Hold
by  Sherry Su FWN Financial News 12/19/2008

Nymex crude futures hit a four-and-a-half year low Friday, as a gloomy global demand outlook continued to outweigh the impact from output cuts by oil producing countries.  However, the steep decline was restricted to the January Nymex contract, in trading that was seen to be associated with the contract's expiry later Friday.
Other crude contracts edged higher, but failed to make significant gains as activity continued to wind down ahead of the Christmas holiday season. "It looks to me that January is detached from the rest of the complex," said Jim Rintoul, analyst at London-based trade advisory TheOilTrader.com, and he suggested that the contract's impending expiry blunted the significance of the sharp move.

At 1336 GMT, front-month January light, sweet, crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading $1.53 lower at $34.69 a barrel, after dropping as low as $33.44 a barrel. The February contract was up 4 cents at $41.71 a barrel.
The front-month February Brent contract on London's ICE futures exchange was up 71 cents at $44.07 a barrel.
The ICE's gasoil contract for January delivery was down $2.75 at $452.50 a metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for January delivery was up 212 points at 98.41 cents a gallon.

Speaking in London Friday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' President Chakib Khelil said the group will continue cutting output until the price of crude stabilizes. The group announced Wednesday it will cut production by 2.2 million barrels a day effective Jan. 1, as it attempts to put a floor under sliding oil prices. Initial market response to Wednesday's move, however, has been for prices to extend their decline.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi said: "today's price levels are wreaking havoc on the industry and are threatening current and planned investments."  Those words, however, were likely to fall on deaf ears again, as traders and analysts fret about deteriorating global demand.
"We suspect that at least in the very short-term, some of the uncertainty could lift when the Detroit situation gets clarified," said Edward Meir at MF Global, referring to a potential government bailout for U.S. automakers.
However, the lack of a concrete plan, and the wait for a fresh U.S. administration to take power threatened to stymie any optimism over a quick fix. "In such a lame-duck environment, commodity markets cannot be blamed for discounting the worst possible scenario i.e., a recession-induced demand implosion aggravated by the credit crisis, all festering within a political vacuum," he said.

Chart watchers meanwhile suggested that Nymex crude futures could now be targeting the heart of their 1999-2004 range near $25.00 a barrel, technical analysts at Barclays Capital said.  "In the absence of a recovery above $43.50 (a barrel), the risk is for weakness to extend to this zone near $25.00 (a barrel), though such a move would likely be the final stages of the decline from the July peak," they said.

The shock of lower oil prices
World Oil DECEMBER 2008 23 by Dr. Anas Alhajji (NGP Energy Capital Management)

If the recent declining trend in oil prices continues, the oil-producing countries in the Middle East are heading toward a crisis similar to those of the mid-1980s and late 1990s. Government officials thought that their accumulated foreign currency reserves would shield them during periods of low prices. They are shocked by the sudden, steep and painful decline in oil prices. They did not expect a financial crisis that would force them to bail out their own banks and provide billions of dollars in aid to local businesses and populations.
The oil and gas business in the region has started to contract. Already Saudi Aramco is rethinking several long-planned upstream projects, including multibillion-dollar developments at Manifa, Karan and Shaybah Fields, according to Khalid Buraik, the company’s executive director of affairs. And on Nov. 6, Saudi Aramco and ConocoPhillips announced they would halt bidding for construction of the planned 400,000-bpd export refinery at Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, citing the contracting market. Fears that planned projects in the region will be mothballed are becoming more reasonable by the hour.
At the time of this writing, oil prices were about $65/bbl. This price is confusing. We have a major worldwide financial crisis and a crisis in the real economy. Even so, oil prices remain in the range that was prevalent when the US was growing at 3—4% per year, China at 11% per year, and India at 7% pet year. If prices are too high, then they must decline in the following weeks to levels that will be remembered for years to come. If not, then the $60 range is likely to be the new floor.
The dependence of many countries in the Middle East, especially in the Gulf region, on oil revenues has not changed substantially in the last two decades. While key economic indicators in some countries suggest otherwise, most of the new industrial sector consists of petrochemicals and energy-intensive industries. The growth in other sectors depends heavily on government spending, which is fueled by oil revenues. Therefore, a large decrease in oil prices necessarily has a profound impact on these countries.
The experience of collapsing oil prices in the mid-1980s and late 1990s allows us to draw several conclusions about the probable impact of low oil prices on the oil-producing countries in the Middle East:

Decline in oil revenues
The decline in oil revenues will set a new record. If oil prices continue to drop, the coming period will be mote like the mid-1980s than the late 1990s. Like that of the mid-’80s, the current decline came after a long period of price increases. Prices were relatively low in the late 1990s before they declined further in 1998 and early 1999.
Gulf countries do have a cushion of foreign reserves, which did not exist in 1998. However, given population growth and increasing budgetary demands, Middle Eastern countries will sell more oil for lower real revenues compared with either the mid-’80s or the late ‘90s. More oil for less money!

Budget deficits
Despite conservative estimates of oil prices in government budgets, a continued decline in oil prices will result in budget deficits in all the Middle East’s oil-producing countries. Some market analysts believe that these countries will defend the oil prices found in their budgets by cutting production. Theory, statistical analysis and history indicate otherwise.
In theory, countries that relate oil prices to their budgets are price takers. Therefore, they cannot be price makers by cutting production to raise prices. Some of these countries will continue to produce to maintain the flow of oil revenues at any price. They will use their foreign reserves or borrow money to finance their budget deficits.
Saudi Arabia, for example, registered an unprecedented budget deficit of $16.7 billion in 1986 and $14 billion in 1987. In 1998, the Saudi budget deficit reached 510.7 billion. Kuwait’s budget deficit was 54.53 billion in 1987 and $5.73 billion in 1998. Iran registered budget deficits of $17.7 billion, 59.8 billion and $6 billion in 1986, 1987 and 1998, respectively.

Budget cuts and canceled development
Lower revenues translate into canceled, curtailed or postponed contracts. In 1987, Saudi Arabia had to cut defense and security expenditures by 5.9%. Saudi Arabia’s 1999 budget slashed spending by 15.8%, the largest budget cut ever. Education and health services both suffered 6% cuts. In the late 1990s, Iran closed several embassies, citing budget cuts. During the same periods, Abu Dhabi cut back its building contracts by 35%.

Lower or negative economic growth
Economic growth in Middle East oil-producing countries correlates highly with oil prices. High economic growth accompanies higher oil prices in the same manner that low economic growth is associated with low oil prices. For example, Saudi real economic growth averaged 7.4% between 1974 and 1981. It declined to less than 1% between 1984 and 1989. It turned negative in 1999, but higher oil prices in recent years raised growth rates to more than 5%. Kuwait experienced 7.3% real growth between 1974 and 1979. Growth declined to 5% between 1984 and 1989, despite revenues from its foreign investments. Kuwait suffered from a recession in 1999. The average growth between 2002 and 2007 exceeded 10%. The same applies to Iran, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman.
In a low-price environment, there is no incentive to spend money on new oil and gas projects and oilfield maintenance, even if that money exists. The result is declining production capacity and poorly maintained facilities. Consequently, the world will soon experience another cycle of bust and boom in the oil business.   
Dr. Anas Alhajji joined NGP Energy Capital Management, one of the leading energy private equity firms in the industry, in 2008 as Chief Economist. In this newly created role, Dr. Alhajji leads the firm’s macro-analysis of the oil, natural gas and related markets and the overall economic environment. Before joining NGP, he served as a Professor of Economics at the University of Oklahoma (1995—1997), the Colorado School of Mines (1996—2001) and, most recently, Ohio Northern University (2001—2008), where he held the George Willard Patton Chair of Business and Economics.
World Oil DECEMBER 2008 23

Oil at $60-$70 Better for All Says Eni's CEO
AFX News Limited 12/19/2008

An oil price of around $60-$70 is best for both producers and consumers in the long term, Eni Chief Executive Paolo Scaroni told reporters on Friday.  Low oil prices were immediately attractive to consumers but lead to under-investment and supply shortages further down the line, he said.  "In the short term consumers love the idea," Scaroni said. "I've made a caclculation that at this level of price every American household has 6000 more dollars in their pocket to spend on other things -- so big money.  "With the price extremely low today it will mean very high prices three to five years from now," he added. "It's in no one's interest to see prices in 2014 of something like $300." "There is a position that will be good for the consumer today and good for the consumer tomorrow and this will be more in the region of $60-$70," Scaroni said.

He said he thought oil prices were likely to rebound if OPEC producers' output cuts were carried out effectively.
"People tend to forget that only 9 years ago oil prices were below $10 -- so $30 is not high, but not dramatically low either," Scaroni said.

Eni was not considering halting any of its own big projects due to the dropping oil price or the global financial problems, Scaroni said. "We do not see a major decision to be taken in this area right now."  Nor was Eni particularly exposed to the pressure on refining profits from falling demand, he said.
"Refining margins are probably going to go down simply because consumption overall for petroleum is not moving up," Scaroni said. "For us refining is a very small business...so we aren't particularly worried."

He was asked if he saw negative oil demand growth next year: "It is possible, this year demand growth will be negative, 2009 its early days but certainly for the first part of the year there will be negative growth.
Scaroni was attending a conference of oil producers and consumers, including oil ministers from OPEC members and top industry executives, hosted by British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

"Its very difficult for the world to live with such volatility of oil prices," Scaroni said. "On this everyone is agreed and that is the reason everyone is here, but to move from this state on to practical action is a different story...it's not easy."

Australia Chevron Picks Site for Proposed LNG Project
Xinhua Financial News 12/19/2008
Chevron Corp has chosen a production site in Australia for its proposed Wheatstone liquefied natural gas project, the company said on Friday.  After narrowing its search to three locations, the oil and gas major said it preferred to build the project, potentially one of the largest of its kind in Australia, at Ashburton North.  The site is 12 kilometers (7 miles) west of the town of Onslow and about 200 kilometers south of the offshore Wheatstone natural gas field.

Chevron Australia Chief Executive Roy Krzywosinski said in a statement that front-end engineering and design work would be carried out in 2009 while the company sought government approval to operate a 25 million tonnes per year LNG and domestic gas plant complex.

The initial development consists of two LNG processing facilities with a nominal capacity of 5 million tonnes per year each. A separate, but co-located domestic gas plant designed to initially process up to 250 million standard cubic feet per day is included as part of the development plan.

A Chevron spokeswoman said no Wheatstone gas had been contracted for sale while a final investment decision would be made following the completion of the design study.
Approvals from the Western Australian state government were needed for the project to proceed, the spokeswoman said.

Output from the project, announced in March as a 5- million-tonnes-per-year facility, has been since revised following discovery of more gas at its Iago gas field adjacent to the Wheatstone gas field.

If expanded to 25 million tonnes, the Wheatstone plant would be larger than the North West Shelf LNG project, operated by Australia's Woodside Petroleum Ltd Woodside, and Chevron's own proposed 15 million-tonnes-per-year Gorgon LNG project, currently Australia's biggest planned resources project.

China starts 13.6 billion U.S. dollars gas pipeline
www.chinaview.cn 2008-12-19 BEIJING, Dec. 19 Xinhua
China has started construction on a gas pipeline from the western Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region to the southern Guangdong Province, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) told Xinhua Friday. The eastern part of the second west-east gas pipeline, was approved by the country's State Council, or Cabinet, on Nov. 12. Construction started on Dec. 11 and 12 at four sites in the provinces of Henan, Hubei, Jiangxi and Guangdong.

    The pipeline will stretch 2,477 kilometers from Zhongwei, in the western part of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, to Guangzhou, capital of the southern Guangdong Province and cost 93 billion yuan (13.6 billion U.S. dollars). Construction on the western section from Zhongwei to Khorgos in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, began in February, and is expected to be finished by 2009.

    The pipeline will be linked with a Central Asia gas pipeline currently under construction at the end of 2009 and operational in2011. The capacity of the pipeline will be 30 billion cubic meters per year. It will be mainly supplied by the Central Asia gas pipeline. After the pipeline is put into use, the proportion of natural gas in China's primary energy consumption will probably be increased by one to two percent. That will also help save 76.8 million tonnes of coal a year, which will cut emissions of carbon dioxide by an estimated 130 million tonnes a year, sulfur dioxide by 1.44 million tonnes, and dust 660,000 tonnes, the company said. Gas will be transmitted to the eastern, southern and middle part of the country as well as the regions the pipeline runs through.