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      <>><<____________Volume 105:12-May 28--2005________________><<><><>><
           >><<<<_____Editor: Charlie Bartholomew, kryopak@qwest.net_____<>><<
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May 28--2005
Bolivian Law's Impact on Petrobras
Senate Energy Draft Gives FERC LNG Siting Authority
Russian LNG Supplies to U.S. Expected in 7-10 Years
PetroChina, Shell plan Changbei development
Pakistan signs 6 deals with UK for O/G exploration
Turkmenistan to Pakistan Gas pipelineclose to reality
Yemen Indian oil firms keen on exploring O/G in
Kuril Islands Creative thinking
May 28--2005
CNGVC Senate Recognition NGV in Highway Bill
Presidents inaugurate BTC oil export pipeline
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline
New Pipeline Gives Caspian Oil Access to World Markets
Long Beach Postpones Decision on LNG Supply Talks
Siberia TNK-BP Major Gas Field Funds to Develop
Turkmenistan Wintershall PSAgreements
Uzbekistan oil, condensate output down

CNGVC Senate Recognition NGV in Highway Bill
May 19, 2005

Senators Grassley, Baucus, Inhofe and Jeffords Seek to Increase Resources for the Highway Trust Fund, Encourage Wider Use of Natural Gas as a Vehicular Fuel

SACRAMENTO, Calif., May 19 /PRNewswire/ -- The California Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition (CNGVC) today praised the United States Senate's decision to pass a Highway Bill that includes recognition of natural gas as an important alternative transportation fuel.

In the bill's Volumetric Energy Excise Tax Credit (VEETC) provision, Senators Charles Grassley (R-IA) and Max Baucus (D-MT) seek to significantly increase resources for the Highway Trust Fund by increasing taxes on compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to a level equivalent to that of gasoline and diesel fuel. In addition, the Senators encourage the wider use of natural gas as a vehicular fuel through an excise tax incentive.

In response to the Senate Highway Bill, Mike Eaves, president of the CNGVC, affirmed the Senate's commitment to environmental standards and praised its decision to support a proven alternative -- natural gas.
"By passing this Highway Bill, the Senate has demonstrated its commitment to reducing the amount of petroleum we have to import from unstable foreign sources. Further, the natural gas vehicles supported by the Senate -- vehicles like the dedicated natural gas Honda Civic GX -- have significantly less harmful emissions than their gasoline or diesel counterparts," noted Eaves.
"The Senate has shown a sincere attempt to uphold domestic energy security while paving the way for vehicles that will help alleviate urban air pollution," said Eaves. "The good news is people will actually feel the forward motion created by this legislation across the board -- security, environment and economy."

Andrew Littlefair, President and CEO of one of the largest providers of natural gas, Clean Energy, said the Highway Bill provides a great incentive for the use of clean, domestic fuels for transportation. "Fuel diversity not only gives American consumers options, it also puts us on the path to reducing our dangerous dependence on foreign oil," Littlefair said.

About Natural Gas Vehicles and The California Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition
Natural gas is the cleanest burning alternative transportation fuel available today, and natural gas vehicles (NGVs) have been certified as meeting some of the nation's most demanding environmental standards.

NGVs look like any other vehicle and they operate on natural gas as opposed to traditional gasoline. They also reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal "greenhouse" gas that contributes to global warming. Therefore, NGVs are an existing solution to high fuel prices, unstable energy supplies and air pollution.

There are almost 130,000 NGVs on U.S. roads today and more than 2 million are in use worldwide. There are more than 30,000 NGVs in use in California, most of them serving the public in transit, refuse, school bus, shuttle, taxi, municipal, and utility fleets. The California Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition represents companies, organizations and individuals who are committed to expanding the use of this safe, affordable and environmentally friendly technology.  CONTACT:  Katie Romans  916.930.3134
Senate Energy Draft Gives FERC LNG Siting Authority
Intelligence Press 5/23/2005 URL: http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=22703

The oil and gas title of the Senate omnibus energy bill would spur development of natural gas storage, accelerate interstate pipeline projects, give sole siting authority over liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities to FERC and promote the sharing of Outer Continental Shelf (OCS ) revenues with coastal states. The title was released by the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee late Friday and is expected to go through the mark-up process this week.

As expected, the chairman's mark of the 112-page title would give "exclusive authority" to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission over the siting, construction, expansion or operation of LNG facilities located onshore or in state waters. It undoubtedly will draw fire from a lot of Senate Democats, who object to Republicans overlooking the role of the states in this area. The Senate draft appears to offer clearer siting authorization for FERC than a provision in the House energy bill, which was passed in late April.

The measure by the Senate energy panel, which is chaired by Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM), does not take any action to overturn the congressional moratorium on oil and natural gas drilling on the federal OCS. This is a big disappointment for the energy industry, but hardly surprising. The bill, however, does make it more financially enticing for coastal states to allow exploration and production (E&P) off their shores. Specifically, it calls for the Interior Department secretary to distribute $500 million between fiscal years 2006 and 2010 to producing states and coastal political subdivisions (counties, parishes and boroughs).

Revenues would only flow to those states that have approved coastal impact assistance plans. Currently, the federal government shares half of the royalty revenues from onshore production with the states. Coastal states receive 27% of the royalties from offshore production in what is known as the 8(g) zone, which lies between the boundaries of state and federal waters, but they don't get any revenues from production in federal OCS waters off their coasts, with the exception of monies from special-purpose funds. Only five states now have oil and gas production offshore -- Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and Alaska.

In order to tempt other coastal states to open up their waters to drilling, proponents have argued that the states could use the offshore revenues to pay down their debt, but the Senate bill places restrictions on how the funds can be used. The money can only be spent on: 1) conservation, protection or restoration of coastal areas, including wetland; 2) mitigation of damage to fish, wildlife or natural resources; 3) planning assistance and the administrative costs of complying with these requirements; 4) implementation of a federally approved marine, coastal or comprehensive conservation management plan; or 5) mitigation of the impact of OCS activities through funding of onshore infrastructure projects and public service needs.

The Senate measure also allows FERC to award storage companies market-based rates for new storage and storage-related services that are placed in service after the enactment of the energy bill, even if the company is unable to demonstrate that it lacks market power. The Commission first would have to determine that market-based rates are in the public interest and are necessary for the construction of storage capacity in areas that need storage services, and that customers would be adequately protected.

In addition, the bill would set a specific deadline for the secretary of the Department of Commerce to decide the appeals of energy companies seeking to overturn state rulings blocking energy projects under the Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA). It would allow the secretary to receive filings in a particular proceeding during a 270-day period, at the end of which a notice would be published in the Federal Register that the administrative record has been closed. The bill would allow the secretary to stay the 270-day period for no more than 60 days. Not later than 90 days after publication of the notice in the Federal Register, the secretary would be required to either issue a decision or publish a notice in the Federal Register explaining why a decision could not be issued at that time.

The inclusion of this language in the Senate bill is a big win for pipelines, which contend that the lack of a deadline on CZMA appeals has allowed states to hold up energy projects for years on end.

The bill further establishes FERC as the lead agency in carrying out reviews of energy projects to determine whether they comply with the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). As the lead agency, the Commission, in consultation with other agencies, would prepare a single environmental review document, which would be used as the basis for all decisions (including CZMA appeals) under federal law, the Senate draft said. It also gives the Commission the green light to establish a schedule for all federal authorizations.

The measure would allow FERC to establish an electronic information system to provide the agency and the public with information to "facilitate price transparency and participation in markets for the sale or transportation of natural gas in interstate commerce." The system would provide "on a timely basis information about the availability and prices of natural gas sold at wholesale and in interstate commerce to the Commission, state commissions, buyers and sellers of wholesale natural gas, and the public."

But FERC shall not: 1) compete with, or displace from the marketplace, any price publisher (including any electronic price publisher); 2) regulate price publishers; or 3) impose any requirements on the publication of information by price publishers, the Senate bill said.

The Senate bill would increase the Commission's criminal and civil penalty authority under the Natural Gas Act (NGA) and Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978 (NGPA), something the agency has been requesting for years. Specifically, criminal penalties under the NGA and the NGPA would increase to $1 million and five years in prison, while maximum civil penalties under the NGA would increase to $1 million per day per violation. Violators of the NGPA also could become subject to maximum penalties of up to $1 million.

The measure also amends the NGA to prohibit market manipulation. It said it would be "unlawful for any entity, directly or indirectly, to use or employ, in connection with the purchase and sale of transportation services subject to the jurisdiction of the Commission, any manipulative or deceptive device or contrivance...in contravention of such rules and regulations as the Commission may prescribe as necessary in the public interest or for the protection of natural gas ratepayers."

Senate negotiators inserted a number of incentives to further promote oil and gas drilling offshore and onshore. Specifically, it calls for the Interior secretary to issue regulations granting royalty relief suspension for volumes of up to 35 Bcf with respect to the production of natural gas from ultra deep wells on leases issued in shallow waters located in the Gulf of Mexico wholly west of 87 degrees, 30 minutes West longitude. The affected leases would have to be issued within 180 days of the enactment of the bill. The secretary shall not grant royalty incentives if the average annual gas price on the New York Mercantile Exchange exceeds a threshold price specified, and adjusted for inflation, by the secretary.

The measure also would provide royalty relief for oil and gas production from blocks located in water depths of more than 400 meters in the Western and Central Planning Areas of the Gulf (including the portion of the Eastern Planning Area of the Gulf encompassing whole lease blocks lying west of 87 degrees, 30 minutes West longitude) occurring during the five-year period following the enactment of the bill.

The suspension of royalties would apply to volumes of not less than: 1) five million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) for each lease in water depths of 400 meters or more, but less than 800 meters; 2) nine million boe for each lease in water depths of 800 meters or more, but not greater than 1,600 meters; and 3) 12 million boe for each lease in water depths greater than 1,600 meters.

Moreover, the bill calls for the Interior secretary to carry out an expeditious program of competitive leasing of oil and gas in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska. Each lease shall be issued for an initial period of not more than 10 years, and shall be extended for as long as oil or natural gas is produced from the lease, according to the Senate measure.

It would provide incentives for marginal oil and gas wells when oil prices fall below $15 per barrel for 90 consecutive days and when gas prices fall to approximately $2 Mcf/d for 90 consecutive days, both of which are unlikely to happen, at least not anytime soon. The measure also gives the Interior secretary the authority to expand the royalty-in-kind program, allowing producers to use their production to pay off their royalty debt as opposed to making cash payments.

The bill further calls on the Interior secretary to arrange for the National Academy of Public Administration to conduct a review of federal onshore oil and gas leasing practices, focusing on the process by which federal land managers accept or reject an offer to lease; the process for applications for permits to drill; the process for considering surface use of operations; the process for administrative appeals of decisions or orders of officers or employees of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) with respect to federal oil or gas leases; the process by which federal land managers identify stipulations to address site-specific concerns and conditions; and how federal land management agencies coordinate planning and analysis with federal, state and local agencies.

The Interior Department and National Academy are required to report the findings to the Senate Energy Committee and House Resources Committee within 18 months after the enactment of the bill.

For faster permitting of oil and gas production, the bill calls for the Interior Department to ensure expeditious compliance with NEPA; improve consultation and coordination with the states and the public; and improve the collection, storage and retrieval of information related to oil and gas leasing activities. It also called for the Agriculture Department to focus on more timely action for oil and gas lease applications.

Eighteen months following enactment of the bill, the Interior secretary would be required to develop and implement best management practices to improve the administration of onshore oil and gas leasing. Within 180 days of the development of the best management practices, the secretary is required to publish for comment proposed regulations that spell out specific timetables for processing leases and application.

The BLM would be appropriated an additional $60,000 in fiscal years 2006 through 2010 to carry out these activities, while the Fish and Wildlife Service would receive $5 million and the Agriculture Department would get $5 million in each of the fiscal years. The departments of Interior and Agriculture also are required to enter into a memorandum of understanding (within 180 days of enactment of bill) to establish administrative procedures and lines of authority to ensure timely processing of oil and gas lease applications, surface-use plans of operation, and applications for permits to drill.

Lastly, the bill calls on the Interior secretary to establish a "Federal Permit Streamlining Pilot Project." Toward this aim, the secretary is required to enter into a memorandum of understanding with the secretary of Agriculture, the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Chief of Engineers. The Interior secretary also may request that the governors of Wyoming, Montana, Colorado, Utah and New Mexico be signatories to the memorandum.

Six BLM offices would serve as pilot project offices: Rawlins, WY; Buffalo, WY; Miles City, MT; Farmington, NM; Carlsbad, NM; and Grand Junction/Glenwood Springs, CO. Within three years of the enactment of the energy bill, the Interior secretary will submit a report to Congress on the results of the pilot project, and make recommendations to the president on whether the pilot should be implemented throughout the United States.
Today's inauguration of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline
marks a major step in BP's continuing long-term strategy of delivering growing volumes of oil and gas from new hydrocarbon provinces around the world.

The 1770-kilometre pipeline will carry one million barrels of oil a day from the BP-operated Azeri Chirag Gunashli (ACG) oilfield in the Caspian Sea to the eastern Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, bypassing the sensitive and heavily used Bosphorous Straits.

The pipeline was officially inaugurated at the Sangachal terminal, near Baku, by President Ilham Aliyev of the Azerbaijan Republic, President Mikhail Saakashvilli of Georgia and President Ahmet Sezer of Turkey, joined by President Nursaltan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan. Speaking at the ceremony, BP chief executive Lord Browne described the project as "an heroic engineering achievement, as ground-breaking in today's context as Prudhoe Bay and the Trans-Alaskan pipeline were 30 years ago.

"The pipeline opens up massive new fields in the Caspian Sea to world markets, enhancing security of supply for decades to come. And it does so in a way that avoids the transit of large numbers of tankers through the narrow and congested Bosphorous."

BP is operating four major projects in the Caspian region on behalf of its consortium partners which already add up to more than $20 billion of investment, with a further $10 billion likely to be spent mainly on offshore development by the end of the decade.

As well as the Azeri Chirag Gunashli (ACG) oil field and BTC pipeline, the projects include the Shah Deniz gas field and associated South Caucasus pipeline, which will be completed in 2006. Once fully on stream by 2008, ACG will provide approximately one million barrels of oil a day to world markets.

The BTC partners have contributed more than $100 million to community investment, environmental and cultural heritage protection programmes among 454 communities along the pipeline's route. At current oil  prices the major oil and gas fields and pipelines will provide revenues to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey of more than $150 billion between 2005 and 2024.

The Caspian is one of BP's major new profit centres, along with the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, offshore Angola, Trinidad, Egypt, Indonesia and Russia.
The pipeline that will change the world It is 42 inches wide, 1,090 miles long and is intended to save the West from relying on Middle Eastern oil. Nothing has been allowed to stand in its way - and it finally opens today By Daniel Howden and Philip Thornton 25 May 2005 The first drops of crude will snake their way along a pipeline that traverses some of the most unstable and war-ravaged countries on earth. This is the oil flow that was meant to save the West, and this morning the taps were turned on.

Only 42 inches wide, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan was supposed to alter global oil markets forever. The 1,000-mile project has transformed the geopolitics of the Caucasus and its impact is now being felt in the vastness of central Asia.

Output is supposed to reach one million barrels a day - more than 1 per cent of world production - from an underground reserve that could hold as many as 220 billion barrels.

Its architects and investors claimed the pipeline would shore up energy supplies in the US and Europe for 50 years, protecting our gas-guzzling way of life and easing our reliance on the House of Saud.

The goal of the ambitious project, which makes its tortuous way from the Caspian in Azerbaijan, through Georgia to the Mediterranean coast of Turkey, is to ease the reliance of the West on the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and bring cheaper fuel to our filling stations. The pipe threads its way through the region in a seemingly modest private corridor only 50 yards wide but nothing has been allowed to stand in its way. From forests to labour laws and endangered species to democracy protesters: all have given way to the costliest and most significant pipeline ever built.

The project, known as BTC, has driven a wedge between the US and Russia, triggered political unrest in the countries it passes through and their neighbours and sparked concern at extensive damage to the environment.

Since the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the US, concern at the West's dependence on Persian Gulf oil has intensified. For Washington, the opening is a cause for celebration. "We view this as a significant step forward in the energy security of that region," said Samuel Bodman, the American energy secretary, who stood next to the three heads of state at today's ceremony.

With him at the pumping station controls was the president of the tiny former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan. The BTC has allowed Ilham Aliev to become a firm friend of the West while overseeing a government condemned for human rights abuses and sitting at the head of an administration placed 140 out of 146 in Transparency International's global corruption index.

The politics of the pipeline have also changed the face of Georgia, where the battle for control with Russia saw immense US influence deployed in support of the so-called "Rose Revolution". The popular protest ushered the American-educated Mikhail Saakashvili into power two years ago. Washington's new ties with Tbilisi were amply demonstrated when George Bush became the first US president to visit the country earlier this month.

In the long-term US ally Turkey, where the pipeline crucially delivers its oil direct to the Mediterranean - bypassing the tanker-clogged Bosphorus straits, it is no accident that it does so right next to the American airbase at Incirlik.

When big oil companies turned their attentions to the potential Caspian energy reserves released from behind the collapsing walls of the Soviet Union, the region was billed as the "new Middle East". If only the reserves could be securely transported from the landlocked sea to the Mediterranean, the West would be gifted a vital alternative to the volatile Persian Gulf and the region would be freed from the iron grip of Russia, which had previously monopolised the export routes of their former Soviet satellites.

Once the Soviet empire fell, the Caspian found itself surrounded by five nation states - Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan.

The region's supply of cheap oil and key position on the historic border between the West and the East meant that countries quickly moved into position like pieces on a chessboard.

Three rival plans were drawn up - a northern route through Russia, a southern alternative through Iran and the central option through the Caucasus to the Mediterranean.

The winner could be in little doubt: the middle road was the only one which guaranteed Washington and its corporate allies a corridor of control.

The US Vice-President Dick Cheney, who was then chief executive of oil services giant Halliburton, was among the first to be swept away in the excitement.

"I cannot think of a time when we have had a region emerge as suddenly to become as strategically significant as the Caspian," he said in 1998.

Now, more than a decade and $4bn (£2.2bn) later, almost three quarters of which came from bank loans which were underwritten by government agencies and £320m in taxpayers' money, the pipeline is open. But this chapter of what Rudyard Kipling called the "Great Game" - the secret battle to dominate central Asia - has only reached the end of its first phase.

The fanfare at the British oil giant BP's gleaming new terminal at Sangachal in Azerbaijan may yet prove to be premature.

Stripped of the American hype of the 1990s, the crude that began a very modest flow this morning is the first instalment of a reserve many analysts are now convinced is actually only 32 billion barrels - equivalent to that of a small Gulf player such as Qatar.

The game now moves to the transCaspian pipeline and to the immense plains of Turkmenistan and the political cauldron of Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and beyond.
Presidents inaugurate BTC oil export pipeline --of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey
25 May 2005

The Azerbaijan section of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil export pipeline was inaugurated today by the Presidents of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey in an official ceremony, which was held at the BTC head pump station in the Sangachal Terminal near Baku. This event marks the official celebration of first oil into the Heydar Aliyev BTC main export pipeline.

HE President Ilham Aliyev of the Azerbaijan Republic hosted the event, in which he was joined by the President of Turkey Ahmet Necdet Sezer, the President of Georgia Mikheil Saakasvili, the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev, a large group of visiting senior government and state officials, senior executives of BTC owner companies and business representatives.

The inauguration of BTC follows the commissioning of the BTC head pump station at the Sangachal terminal earlier this month and officially marks the commencement of the first linefill phase of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil export pipeline.

A total of 10 million barrels of crude oil is required to fill the 1770 kilometre pipeline running from the Sangachal terminal near Baku via Georgia to the Ceyhan terminal on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey. The oil comes from the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) field in the Azerbaijan sector of the Caspian Sea. The staged filling of the pipeline along its entire route could take over six months and the loading of the first tanker at Ceyhan is expected in the fourth quarter of 2005.   Natig Aliyev, President of the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR), said: "Today's event marks the beginning of the long journey Azerbaijan's oil will take through three countries to world markets benefiting the people of the three countries on its route. We are putting first oil into the pipeline with a sense of pride that we take in Azerbaijan's leading role in the realization of one of the world's longest and, we believe, safest pipelines. The event also marks the realization of the dream of the people of Azerbaijan and our national leader Heydar Aliyev to realize a pipeline that would bridge the nations of the region and enable Azerbaijan to regain its important role in regional and international economic developments. I wish to congratulate all the citizens of Azerbaijan and all our partners who contributed to the fulfillment of this dream."

David Woodward, BP Azerbaijan Associate President, said: "This is a great moment as it marks Azerbaijan's rebirth as an important country for the industry just as it was more than a century ago. It is also a symbol of what can be achieved through cooperation - between different countries, nation states and national companies and international business. None of us could have done this on our own. Ten years ago many people said that this was an impossible project. Thanks to many people the impossible was made possible.

"Over the last decade nearly $10 billion have been invested in this country's oil and gas developments in the Caspian, and over the next decade that will make the Caspian region one of the major sources of incremental supply to the world market. Today marks the beginning of a new chapter for both Azerbaijan and BP".

The BTC Co. shareholders are: BP (30.1%); AzBTC (25.00%); Unocal (8.90%); Statoil (8.71%); TPAO (6.53%); Eni (5.00%); Total (5.00%), Itochu (3.40%); INPEX (2.50%), ConocoPhillips (2.50%) and Amerada Hess (2.36%).  Notes to Editors:  The 1770-km BTC pipeline will allow one million barrels of oil a day to be exported safely and responsibly from the Caspian without increasing tanker traffic through the Turkish Straits. It is buried for its entire length and following construction land is being fully re-instated.

In addition, the project's community investment programme (CIP) is up and running in all three countries. Overall BTC together with the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP), being built to carry Shah Deniz gas from the Caspian to Georgia and Turkey, will spend some $30 million on community and environmental investment in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey during the construction phase. As we move into the operations phase, we are also developing a Regional Sustainable Development Programme (RSDP), which will build upon the best practice of existing CIP projects as well as addressing some of the regional and national challenges posed by the development of large-scale oil and gas businesses.
Siberia TNK-BP Major Gas Field Funds to Develop
Interfax Information Services, B.V. 5/24/2005 URL: http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=22731

TNK-BP's board of directors approved expenditure of $136 million for the design and construction of the "Early Gas" phase of the Kovykta Project in East Siberia, TNK-BP said in a press release.

The "Early Gas" phase is part of a $1.1 billion gasification project to deliver Kovykta gas to a number of industrial customers in Sayansk, Usolie-Sibirsk, Angarsk, and Irkutsk, and other consumers in settlements and villages of the Irkutsk region, the release said.

Most of the investment will be made between 2005 and 2008.

Specifically the funds will be used to construct a gas pipeline from the Kovykta gas condensate field to supply customers in the Zhigalovo region of the Irkutsk region as early as 2006, in compliance with the current Kovykta license terms. It is estimated that the regional gasification project will be supplying 2.8 billion cubic meters of gas per annum by 2010.

TNK-BP affiliate companies, RUSIA Petroleum and the East Siberian Gas Company will implement the project, and are working closely with potential gas consumers such as SayanskChimPlast, Russia's largest PVC producer. The support provided by the Irkutsk region's administration has also been a major factor in the progress of the project.

The board's decision is an important first step for development of the gas industry in East Siberia as a whole. Future full field development of the Kovykta field and the associated pipeline infrastructure will be a catalyst in the development of other gas resources in East Siberia and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). It will also attract contractors and related industries from all over Russia and create an estimated 40,000 jobs.

Commenting on the decision, TNK-BP President and Chief Executive Officer, Robert Dudley said: "We are delighted to now be taking significant and concrete steps to develop Kovykta's gas for Russia."

TNK-BP's Executive Director for Gas Development, Viktor Vekselberg added: "The Board's decision demonstrates our continuing commitment to develop Kovykta, and the Irkutsk region. The regional gasification project will underpin social and economic development, potentially doubling the gross regional product (GRP) of East Siberia and almost trebling the GRP of the Irkutsk region."

The board's decision to proceed with investment in the gasification of Irkutsk region could soon be followed by plans to supply gas from Kovykta to Chita region and the Republic of Buryatia.

The Kovykta Project is a major East Siberian gas project comprising two principal components; a domestic project to deliver regional gasification, and a proposed export development.

RUSIA Petroleum, in which TNK-BP holds a 62% interest, is the license holder for the Kovykta field. RUSIA's other shareholders are Interros (26%) and the Irkutsk region's administration (12%).

East Siberian Gas Company is a gas transportation and marketing company formed as a 50:50 joint venture between TNK-BP and the Irkutsk region's administration.
Turkmenistan Wintershall PSAgreements
Interfax Information Services, B.V. 5/24/2005 URL: http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=22732

Germany's Wintershall intends to participate in developing gas fields in the northern part of the Turkmen section of the Caspian Sea on a production-sharing basis soon, Bernhard Schmidt, a senior company official, said during a meeting with Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov on Monday.

President Niyazov welcomed the desire of this well-known Germany company, which ranks among the largest European oil and gas firms, to establish full-fledged and mutually profitable cooperation with Turkmenistan, the presidential press service said after the meeting.

Gas extraction at sea is a priority trend in Turkmenistan?s oil and gas complex, considering the enormous resources of hydrocarbons hidden under the sea floor, the press service quoted Niyazov as saying.

Wintershall intends to drill test holes in the coming months, Schmidt said.

The company would also like to participate in developing promising gas fields on the right bank of the Amu Darya, he said.
Bolivian Law's Impact on Petrobras
Bilateral Workgroup to Study (BNamericas.com) 5/24/2005 URL: http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=22735

Brazil and Bolivia have created a workgroup to study the impact of the new hydrocarbons law approved by Bolivia's congress on May 17 on the former's federal energy company Petrobras (NYSE: PBR), Brazil's mines and energy ministry said in a statement.

The workgroup will study the changes in Petrobras' oil and gas exploration and production contracts under the new legislation, which will raise taxes and royalties to up to 50% on hydrocarbons production.

Petrobras' natural gas sales contracts with Bolivia's state oil company YPFB will not be affected by the changes, the ministry said. A second workgroup, which will also include Argentina, will discuss regional energy integration.

The two workgroups were announced after a Friday meeting in Brazil's capital Brasilia between mines and energy minister Dilma Rousseff, Petrobras CEO José Dutra and Bolivia's mines and hydrocarbon minister Guillermo Torres.

Rousseff and Torres declared their intention to continue the current relationship between the two countries, while the Brazilian government and Petrobras said they would continue to study the repercussions of the new law.

On May 18, the day after the law was approved by Bolivia's congress, Rousseff announced that Petrobras would continue to operate in Bolivia, where it is reported to have invested US$1.5bn, but said the company would have to reduce or postpone some investments in the country.
 Long Beach Postpones Decision on LNG Supply Talks
IIntelligence Press 5/25/2005 URL: http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=22770

IIn a move that drew widespread local news media attention, the Long Beach, CA, City Council Tuesday evening at the last minute postponed until late next month a decision on whether to break off two years of negotiations on behalf of its municipal energy department with the sponsors of a proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) receiving terminal in its harbor.

Although these talks are separate from Port of Long Beach's siting decisions, the prospect of a rejection of even a peripheral issue to the siting question drew major local interest. At stake is an agreement that the city entered into two years ago with Mitsubishi's U.S.-based subsidiary, Sound Energy Solutions (SES), to negotiate a possible supply contract. SES has since added 50-50 partner ConocoPhillips to the LNG project. This is separate from the ultimate question of whether the proponents will get a permit from the Port and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to allow construction to begin.

However, the city talks with SES do involve added energy infrastructure, including a 2.5-mile natural gas transmission pipeline to bring supplies into Long Beach's municipal natural gas network.

A meeting of city officials, including the city attorney's office, prior to the late afternoon council meeting prompted the delay. However, a spokesperson for the city said the council members gave no reason publicly for delaying a vote on a resolution that read. "...to authorize the city manager to terminate negotiations with SES/Mitsubishi regarding a long-term natural gas supply and the feasibility of constructing and operating interconnecting natural gas pipelines to the proposed LNG facility, pursuant to a memorandum of understanding approved by the city council May 13, 2003."

In advance of the agenda item Tuesday, the Los Angeles Times published a major "Q&A" feature raising basic questions about LNG along the California coast -- noting there are two onshore and two offshore receiving terminal proposals. Under the headline, "Debate Over Concentrated Fuel Comes to Long Beach," a Times environmental reporter who covers Long Beach-Los Angeles Harbor developments answered generic questions, such as "What is LNG? Why is it controversial? What are its effects on the environment?"

In answer to the "controversial" question, the Times' report called LNG's highly concentrated nature "both a benefit and a curse," siting the shipping convenience, but also safety risks of a "massive fire." It added that in Long Beach, beyond the normal safety concerns with hazardous cargoes, residents are concerned about an LNG terminal being a target for terrorism.
Russian LNG Supplies to U.S. Expected in 7-10 Years
Interfax Information Services, B.V. 5/25/2005 URL: http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=22763

Supplies of liquefied natural gas from Russia to the U.S. are expected not sooner than in seven to 10 years, U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman said at a press conference in Moscow on Tuesday.

He said that LNG projects, as a rule, take a lot of time, therefore a project to supply LNG from Russia to the U.S. would be implemented in about seven-10 years.

Bodman said that the aim of his current visit to Russia is to develop Russian-U.S. energy dialogue. He said that yesterday he met with Industry and Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko, Economic Development and Trade Minister German Gref and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and that he plans to meet with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov today.

He said that working relations with Russia are developing very successfully. At the meeting with Khristenko he discussed the Northern pipeline project, joint projects to develop Eastern Siberia, the Timan- Pechora oil province and also Sakhalin projects being jointly developed by Russian and U.S. companies.

The U.S. currently imports most of its LNG from Qatar, Trinidad, Tobago, Algeria, Malaysia, Nigeria and Oman.

The U.S. currently has four LNG terminals: Everett (Massachusetts, capacity - 1.035 billion cubic feet per day), Cove Point (Maryland - 1 bcf per day), Elba Island (Georgia - 680 million cubic feet per day), and Lake Charles in Louisiana. In addition, five new projects have been approved to build LNG terminals in North America, including the Energia Costa Azul terminal in Mexico, to which Sakhalin-2 LNG will be supplied.

Russian gas monopoly Gazprom plans to supply LNG from the Shtokman field to North America and is holding talks with ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, ChevronTexaco, RD/Shell and Norway's Statoil and Hydro.

Gazprom is also holding talks with Exxon and BP to supply LNG to the U.S. in exchange for supplies of grid gas from Russia to Europe. The first swap supplies of LNG to the U.S. are planned for this year.

Gazprom plans to become a shareholder or to rent on a long-term basis a re-gasification terminal in the U.S. or Canada in 2006-2009.
New Pipeline Gives Caspian Oil Access to World Markets
BP 5/25/2005 URL: http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=22750

Today's inauguration of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline marks a major step in BP's continuing long-term strategy of delivering growing volumes of oil and gas from new hydrocarbon provinces around the world.

The 1770-kilometer pipeline will carry one million barrels of oil a day from the BP-operated Azeri Chirag Gunashli (ACG) oilfield in the Caspian Sea to the eastern Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, bypassing the sensitive and heavily used Bosphorous Straits.

The pipeline was officially inaugurated at the Sangachal terminal, near Baku, by President Ilham Aliyev of the Azerbaijan Republic, President Mikhail Saakashvilli of Georgia and President Ahmet Sezer of Turkey, joined by President Nursaltan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan. Speaking at the ceremony, BP chief executive Lord Browne described the project as "an heroic engineering achievement, as ground-breaking in today's context as Prudhoe Bay and the Trans-Alaskan pipeline were 30 years ago.

"The pipeline opens up massive new fields in the Caspian Sea to world markets, enhancing security of supply for decades to come. And it does so in a way that avoids the transit of large numbers of tankers through the narrow and congested Bosphorous."

BP is operating four major projects in the Caspian region on behalf of its consortium partners which already add up to more than $20 billion of investment, with a further $10 billion likely to be spent mainly on offshore development by the end of the decade.

As well as the Azeri Chirag Gunashli (ACG) oil field and BTC pipeline, the projects include the Shah Deniz gas field and associated South Caucasus pipeline, which will be completed in 2006. Once fully on stream by 2008, ACG will provide approximately one million barrels of oil a day to world markets.

The BTC partners have contributed more than $100 million to community investment, environmental and cultural heritage protection programs among 454 communities along the pipeline's route. At current oil prices the major oil and gas fields and pipelines will provide revenues to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey of more than $150 billion between 2005 and 2024.

The Caspian is one of BP's major new profit centers, along with the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, offshore Angola, Trinidad, Egypt, Indonesia and Russia.
PetroChina, Shell plan Changbei development
By OGJ editors HOUSTON, May 19

PetroChina Co. Ltd. and Shell China Exploration & Production Co. Ltd. have signed letters of intent for development of Changbei natural gas field in Shaanxi Province and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in China.

The joint venture expects to invest about $600 million in development work including construction of central processing facilities, interfield pipelines, and drilling of about 50 horizontal and multilateral wells over 10 years.

Shell, which will be operator under a production-sharing contract with PetroChina, awarded a 4-year directional drilling contract to Halliburton Energy Services (Tianjin) Ltd. and a 3-year contract for drilling fluids and associated services to the Engineering Technology Institute of Changqing Petroleum Exploration Bureau.

The contract for drilling rigs and associated services covering the drilling of about 30 wells over the next 6 years was awarded to a drilling company affiliated with Liaohe Petroleum Exploration Bureau.

The joint venture also signed a letter of intent (LOI) to award engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) of the central gas processing facility to a consortium of China Petroleum Engineering Co. Ltd, Southwest Co., and Sichuan Petroleum Engineering Construction Co. Ltd.

China Liaohe Petroleum Engineering Co. Ltd. received an LOI for an EPC contract to develop the field gathering pipeline infrastructure.

The field is expected to begin delivering 1.5 billion cu m/year of natural gas to Beijing, Shandong, Hebei, and Tianjin by 2007 and as much as 3 billion cu m/year by 2008. Shell will receive 50% of the gas volumes during the 20-year project.

PetroChina's second Shaan-Jing gas pipeline to Beijing is under construction and scheduled to go online by midyear.
Uzbekistan oil, condensate output down
Eric Watkins Senior Correspondent LOS ANGELES, May 23 2005
Uzbekistan's state-run Uzneftegaz has reduced production of oil, including gas condensate, by 16.7% to 1.948 million tonnes and natural gas by 1.2% to 20.219 billion cu m in the first quarter of 2005 compared with the same period of 2004.

For all of last year, Uzneftegaz reduced production of oil and condensate by 7.8% to 6.85 million tonnes.
Pakistan signs 6 deals with UK for O/G exploration
Source: GEO Business News http://www.gasandoil.com 02-05-05

Pakistan has signed six agreements worth $ 40.20 mm with multinational companies in Britain for the exploration of oil and gas in the potential areas of North West Frontier (NWFP), Balochistan and Sindh provinces.
These agreements materialized in a two-day conference held under the aegis of Pakistan ministry of petroleum and natural resources (MPNR). Secretary, MPNR, Ahmad Waqar signed these agreements on behalf of the government of Pakistan.

The agreements envisage phase-wise exploration of oil and gas by these companies in Jhangar area of Sindh, Huramzai and Laogasht of Balochistan besides Kohat and Bannu areas of NWFP.

Later, Federal Minister for petroleum and natural resources, Amanullah Jadoon told that the talks on the proposed import of gas from Turkmenistan, Iran and Qatar were in progress and if India showed its intention of gas import from Iran via Pakistan, it would be welcomed.

He told that the prices of oil in Pakistan were determined on the basis of variations in Gulf oil rates.
Pakistan's High Commissioner in Britain, Dr Maleeha Lodhi was also present on this occasion.
Yemen Indian oil firms keen on exploring O/G in
Source: Zee Telefilms http://www.gasandoil.com 12-05-05

Indian state-run oil firms are keen on exploring oil and gas in Yemen and have evinced interest in modernisation of Aden refinery, Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar said. "Indian public sector oil companies have shown interest in exploration and production blocks in Yemen, modernization of Aden refinery and the proposed hydrocracker project, sourcing of natural gas from Yemen and LNG liquefaction plants there," he said. It has been decided to form a joint technical committee to discuss cooperation in all sectors of hydrocarbons, he said.

To another question, he said public sector firms imported 3.87 mm tons of petroleum products worth Rs 7,238.78 crore in 2004-05 while the private sector companies imported 8.87 mm tons of products worth Rs 14,949.65 crore. The mainstay imports of public sector companies were LPG (2.138 mm tons for Rs 4,055.12 crore) and diesel (703,408 tons for Rs 1,422.289 crore). The same for private companies was naphtha (1.96 mm tons for Rs 3,559.331 crore) and LSWR (844,590 tons for Rs 1,012.02 crore).
Turkmenistan to Pakistan Gas pipelineclose to reality
Source: Christian Science Monitor by Scott Baldauf 13-05-05 http://www.gasandoil.com

Back in the days of the Taliban, Mir Sediq was an engineer for Unocal, working on a pipe dream: bringing natural gas from Turkmenistan down through Afghanistan to Pakistani ports on the Arabian Sea.
Today, Mr Sediq is minister for Afghanistan's energy, mining, and industrial sector, and he's confident that the pipeline is coming close to reality.

Driven by a Pakistani economy growing at nearly 7 % a year and higher energy prices, the pipeline, on paper, is the closest thing to a win-win scenario as one can find in Central Asia. For Pakistan, expected to run out of its own reserves in five years, the pipeline will help sustain growth.
For Turkmenistan, it helps to provide a market for its substantial gas reserves.
For Afghanistan, it could mean from $ 200 mm to $ 350 mm per year in transit fees.

In the rough parlance of oil industry executives, that beats a kick in the head. "This pipeline is an opportunity for Afghanistan, and we would like to keep Afghanistan a place that is open and attractive for foreign investment," says Sediq. "The foreign investment rate of return is 17.5 %, based on the assumptions that the gas reserves in Turkmenistan are enough and the consumption rate in Pakistan remains high. Only security of the pipeline is left, and the government of Afghanistan is capable of providing security."

It wasn't so long ago that the pipeline was thought to be dead. Taliban attacks in the south appeared to be on the increase, and other sources of energy, such as Iran or Qatar, were more attractive. But growing Pakistani demand, increased Afghan stability, and higher energy prices for Turkmenistan have made the pipeline increasingly feasible. President Hamid Karzai told donor countries the project was a top priority -- on a par with the war on terror and opium eradication. As yet, there are no foreign investors vying for the project, but talks between Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan are proceeding. In mid-April, the three countries and the Asia Development Bank held their eighth round of meetings to hammer out details of what Turkmenistan has, how much gas Pakistan needs, and whether Afghanistan is safe enough. The next round comes in July, but Sediq is expected to travel to the Turkmen capital of Ashgabat to see if the government's survey of reserves will be finished in time.

"The biggest question is certification of gas reserves in Turkmenistan," says Mary Louise Vittelli, an adviser to the Afghan Ministry of Mines and Industry. "We need to know if there is enough gas for the next 30 years. There are lots of pipelines in countries where there is war, so security is a question, but not a deal breaker. You can have all the security you want, but if the price is five times higher than getting gas from Qatar, then the deal is broken."

When first proposed back in the early 1990s, the Turkmenistan-Afghan-Pakistan pipeline (nicknamed TAP), was planned to be roughly 1,100 miles long. The Afghan portion would have been 466 miles long, much of it following the Herat-Kandahar road. Now, Afghan officials and foreign engineers are exploring a possible route across the northern provinces and through Kabul. If started today, the pipeline could be completed in seven years. That comes two years too late for Pakistan, which is running out of reserves. While Pakistan has doubled its energy output since 1999 -- to 4 bn cfpd -- its roaring economy is expected to deplete gas reserves by 2010. By 2015, it will need to buy 2.5 bn cfpd from abroad. "We cannot sustain our economic growth if we don't get additional energy," says Ahmad Waqar, Pakistan's secretary for petroleum and natural resources. "We need gas."

In all likelihood, Pakistan will need more than one pipeline project. Pakistan is negotiating with Qatar and Iran over separate projects. The Qatari pipeline is the most politically stable, but it has technical problems. The Iranian pipeline -- which would distribute gas to both India and Pakistan -- is technically the simplest. But it faces substantial US opposition, as US law precludes giving a government contract to a US company doing business with Indian or Pakistani firms working on the Iranian pipeline. Both India and Pakistan are so desperate to find gas that they are working together as joint customers on the Iranian pipeline.

The TAP pipeline is expected to cost $ 3.8 bn, and create hundreds if not thousands of jobs for Afghans. Afghan officials say that it might be one of the first projects to generate revenue for the state. "There is the opportunity to create 3,000 Afghan jobs for 30 years," says Sediq. Hiring local labour will help increase security, he adds. "When they are the part of the project, they will not let anyone attack it."
Kuril Islands Creative thinking
Source: Asia Times Online http://www.gasandoil.com by Kosuke Takahashi 16-05-05

Japan's strained diplomatic relationship with China and South Korea should not eclipse a key player whose relationship with Tokyo could set the tone in balance-of-power politics and economic integration in East Asia over the next decades. That player is Russia, and the overarching, festering issue between Japan and Russia is sovereignty over the four Russian-held Kuril Islands. Recently, some Japanese experts on Russia have been calling for greater flexibility and compromise by Tokyo, which has always demanded the return of all four islands. There's no sign yet of official acceptance, but pressures are building for Japan to strike a deal and accept what is called a "two islands plus alpha" solution -- still to be hammered out. Some of the latest thinking is that Japan should give up demanding the return of all four islands and instead accept the two smaller islands and a portion of the two larger ones.

Locked in a diplomatic dispute over the islands, called the Northern Territories by the Japanese and the Southern Kurils by the Russians, conciliatory approaches are beginning to crop up among Russia experts in Japan. While the majority remain determined to wage a long, drawn-out contest with Russia and support Japan's official demand for the return of all four islands, an increasing number of experts have begun to float the possibility of compromise, arguing that better relations with Moscow are essential at a time when Japan's relations with China and South Korea have plummeted. They argue that Japan and Russia need to find common ground, a point of compromise on the Kurils. Their approach, the two islands plus alpha solution, is something less than a 50:50 split of the total area, more like 37:63, with the smaller part going to Japan. "Two" refers to the two smaller islands Russia promised to return to Japan in 1956 and that Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested last November Moscow could relinquish -- they represent just 7 % of the entire disputed area. "Alpha" refers to some portion of the remaining two bigger islands.

The Southern Kurils, or Northern Territories, consist of three islands -- Kunashiri, Etorofu and Shikotan -- and the uninhabited Habomai group of islets, also termed an island. The islands are believed to be rich in natural resources, such as oil and gas, and the area is a major fishing grounds. Russia has offered to return the two smaller territories -- Shikotan Island and the uninhabited Habomai group of islets, while retaining the larger, more valuable islands. Tokyo has rejected the offer and has sought the return of all four territories. Moscow has never accepted the return of more than two islands, while Tokyo has never accepted the return of less than four islands.

Island Name Area (sq km) Etorofu Island 3,184.0 Kunashiri Island 1,498.8 Shikotan Island 253.3 Habomai islets 99.9 Total 5036.0 Source: The Geographical Survey Institute

Japan and Russia have not concluded a peace treaty since the end of World War II, 60 years ago, due to this unsolved territorial dispute. Currently, the two sides are engaged in a covert but fierce war of diplomatic nerves over President Putin's hoped-for but deliberately unscheduled visit to Tokyo. The delay is attributed by Japan to Russia's foot-dragging over the Kurils. Putin told Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi last November on the sidelines of the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum summit in Santiago, Chile, that he would visit Japan in early 2005, but the trip has yet to be scheduled, due apparently to differences between Moscow and Tokyo over the territorial dispute. Experts in Tokyo are now watching to see whether Koizumi will visit Russia during the celebration of the 60th anniversary of victory in World War II, to be held in Moscow on May 9 -- that could be an indicator of Japanese flexibility. Since Koizumi is currently facing severe criticism in the Diet, or parliament, over his top priority, reform of the postal system, whether he could spare time to visit Moscow remains to be seen. If he does go, this would be indicative of Tokyo's serious intention to resolve the territorial issue and improve ties between the two countries.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will be in Japan on May 30-31 to lay the groundwork for Putin's promised trip later this year. "There is an invitation [from Japan] and the visit cannot be postponed," Lavrov was quoted as telling. Analysts believe Lavrov made the remarks to indicate to Japan that Russia is ready to make Putin's visit to Japan a reality if Koizumi attends the Moscow ceremony. Koizumi indicated on April 8 that he is considering visiting Russia around May 9 if parliamentary circumstances allow him to do so. "We are considering it... I would like to visit if possible but it is a weekday," Koizumi told in response to questions about attending the Russian ceremony.

Conservative Japanese media, such as The Sankei Shimbun, staunchly oppose such a visit to Russia, which they say might be viewed by both the Japanese and Russian public as Tokyo's weak-kneed diplomacy in the territorial dispute with Moscow. "Nothing but the political shutdown by the two countries' top leaders can solve this long-standing territorial dispute," Shigeki Hakamada, a professor at Aoyama Gakuin University professor in Tokyo and an expert on Russian affairs, said. "Both sides need to make some concessions." Nobuo Shimotomai, professor of law at Hosei University and an expert on Russian politics and history, holds similar views. He noted that calls for the two islands plus alpha formula are growing steadily among Russia experts in Tokyo. "President Putin has played a diplomatic card suggesting the return of two of the four islands, and this year will be a decisive time for the Japan-Russia talks on the Northern Territories and future ties," Shimotomai told.

Akihiro Iwashita, a professor at Hokkaido University's Slavic Research Centre, echoed their views. "Solving this issue will be accompanied by painin the two countries' domestic politics," Iwashita told. "But Koizumi and Putin have leadership ability to make a breakthrough on this territorial dispute." As examples of such leadership, Iwashita cited Koizumi's two surprise visits to North Korea, and Putin's visit to Beijing last October that solved the final settlement of Russia's long-standing border disputes with China. Putin and Chinese President Hu Jintao put an end to their remaining territorial disputes over three islands, reaching a 50:50 agreement in their negotiations over borders.

A bitter legacy of World War II For Japan, the dispute over the Northern Territories/Southern Kurils is a bitter legacy of World War II. On August 9, 1945, three days after the atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima and the day on which Nagasaki suffered from the bombing, the Soviet Union declared war on Japan, in violation of the Neutrality Pact that Tokyo signed in 1941. Four days after Japan accepted the Potsdam Declaration announcing Japan's surrender to the Allied powers, Soviet troops undertook aggressive action, moving on the Kuril Islands, which then belonged to Japan. By September 5, Soviets troops had occupied the four islands now in dispute. History never accepts what-ifs. But if Japan had accepted the Potsdam Declaration right after the August 6 bombing of Hiroshima, there could have been no Nagasaki bombing and Soviet leader Joseph V. Stalin might not have declared war on Tokyo. Then, there would not have been the island dispute today, nor would there have been nearly 600,000 Japanese soldiers held in Siberian labour camps where about 60,000 were said to have died under cruel working conditions. From a Japanese perspective, Japanese leaders at that time made a serious and terrible misjudgement of the situation.

Meanwhile, for Russia, this territorial dispute has also been a symbol of diplomatic frustration. Princeton University Professor Gilbert Rozman points out in his article in the book, The International Relations of NortheastAsia, for Russia, "Japan's demand for four islands meant overturning the Yalta Agreement and yielding to nationalist pressure". At the February 1945 Yalta Conference involving Stalin, United States president Franklin D. Roosevelt and British prime minister Winston S. Churchill, the US and Britain are said to have allowed the Soviet Union to unjustly invade and occupy these Japanese lands in the post-World War II period -- a reward for Soviet participation in the war.

In 1960, Moscow unilaterally abrogated the 1956 Japan-Soviet communique, the treaty promising to return to Japan the smaller Shikotan Island and the uninhabited Habomai group of islets - two of the four territories. Not until the early 1990s, shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, did Moscow officially admit the existence of any territorial dispute with Tokyo, largely due to the Cold War. In 1993 the two countries finally issued the Tokyo Declaration that committed them to tackle the issue of sovereignty over all four islands, including the two bigger islands Kunashiri and Etorofu. This is the reason most intellectuals here still are willing to stick to Japan's traditional demand for the return of all four islands. Although since last November Putin has offered Koizumi hard choices for ending this territorial dispute by suggesting the return of the two smaller islands, Japanese experts on Russia say the more time and effort that is put into this issue, the more Russia might and could compromise in the near future.

Experts have many views and interpretations of this issue, depending on how they see the historical records. Those who focus on the Soviet Union's violation of the Neutrality Pact with Japan in August 1945 tend to buy Tokyo's views and case for the islands. Those who stress the 1956 Japan-Soviet communique clearly accept Russia's case for sovereignty over the islands. How one interprets the language of historical documents also matters. Japan's 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty with the Allied Powers stipulated in Article 2(c) that Japan would renounce all rights, title and claim to the Chishima Retto, literally meaning the Kuril islands chain in Japanese. But amid criticism from domestic and foreign observers, the Japanese government has never recognized those four islands to be included in those renounced as the Chishima Retto, claiming those islands have always been inside traditional Japanese territory. This is the major reason why Japan has refused to call those four islands the Southern Kurils and calls them the Northern Territories instead.

Last September, Koizumi stepped up the pressure on Putin over this territorial dispute by setting out on a tour of the Northern Territories by an offshore patrol vessel. Many foreign observers said out Koizumi intentionally increased the tension and even strained relations between the two nations. But Japanese experts such as professor Hakamada of Aoyama Gakuin University said that tour was only intended to correct a possible erroneous perception in Russia that Tokyo was to focus on promoting full economic corporation by shelving the territorial issue. This is because, prior to the tour, the two countries' economic corporation had been emphasized by the Japan-Russian Action Plan, adopted by Koizumi and Putin in January 2003 when Koizumi visited Russia. In any case, the Kurils jaunt seems to have sent the wrong signals to Russia and to foreign observers, regardless of its true intentions.

Return of three islands the best solution For Japan, the best politically feasible remedy to settling this long-standing and festering territorial dispute could be the return of the three smaller islands -- Kunashiri, Shikotan and Habomai -- to Japan. This solution could be an alternative to Putin's offer to return the two smallest islands -- Habomai and Shikotan -- and might help bring Japan and Russia closer to a resolution on the territories issue. At a meeting in Tokyo of Japanese and Russian experts on February 2, a Japanese participant suggested a 50:50 splitof the entire area of the Northern Territories. The two islands that Russia has proposed to return constitute just 7 % of the total area of the four islands. A 50:50 split of all four islands would give Japan Kunashiri, Shikotan and Habomai islands and a portion of the remaining Etorofu. The three islands actually only constitute 37 % of the total, but Japan could give up Etorofu as a bitter legacy of World War II and a reminder of earlier leaders' serious political misjudgement -- a lesson for future Japanese politicians and the public.

This 37:63 split of the entire area of the disputed islands could be a win-win international resolution as well as a lose-lose result in the two countries' domestic politics, since giving up perceived sovereignty always goes against national sentiment. But Tokyo should allow Russia to run the administration of Kunashiri in the near- and mid-term, permitting Russian residents to live on the island and waiting for some of them to move to Etorofu in the long term. The Japanese government repeatedly has said Tokyo would flexibly respond to the timing and manner of the return of the administration over the Northern Territories, if the islands were to return to Japan. Another reason in support of this kind of solution is that since those smaller three islands -- Habomai, Shikotan and Kunashiri -- and the largest island -- Etorofu -- are administered by different local government organizations, it must be easier to redraw a national boundary between Kunashiri and Etorofu. Specifically, Habomai, Shikotan and Kunashiri have been administrated by the "Southern Kuril" local government of the Sakhalin provincial government, while Etorofu has been under the administration of the "Kuril" local government of Russia's Sakhalin Island.

In addition, while Etorofu is known for its self-sustaining economy, supported by one major monopolistic fish processing firm called Gidrostroy, Kunashiri and Shikotan, both closer to Hokkaido, have been suffering from economic woes and are more dependant on the Japanese economy, especially Hokkaido Nemuro's local fishery industries. Further, given the shifting balance of power in Asia due to the rapid rise of China as a major political and economic power and the implications of North Korean problems and energy resources in Russia, cooperation between Japan and Russia is strategically very important. Experts here have pointed out that many, if not all, "silovikis", or ex-KGB and intelligence types surrounding Putin, are said to be wary of China's rapid economic rise accompanied by a "demographic threat" to Russia's Far East and East Siberia -- these silovikis were educated and trained in the 1970s when the confrontation between the Soviet Union and China was fierce.

Japan is eager to make deals giving it access to Russia's massive oil and gas reserves in Siberia, and Russia would welcome Japan's investment. Tokyo and Moscow have a clear interest in solving the territorial row, which has been the principal obstacle to putting the bilateral relations on a better standing. Moreover, for Japan, solving this territorial dispute with Russia would give enormous momentum to settling the country's other border issues with China, South Korea and Taiwan. To the south, Japan is engaged in a sovereignty dispute over the Senkaku Islands (known in China as the Diaoyu Islands) and competing development of offshore gas fields in the East China Sea. In the west, it faces the thorny issue of the South Korean-held Takeshima, known in South Korea as Tokdo or Dokto. For Japan, the Northern Territories issue can leave more room for compromise with its northern neighbour Russia than other territorial disputes.

For Russia and Japan, the year 2005 is a symbolic year representing an opportunity that may not arise again. Not only does it mark the 150th anniversary of the treaty of commerce and friendship between Moscow and Tokyo, but it also marks the 100th anniversary of the peace treaty of Portsmouth, New Hampshire, signed in 1905, at the conclusion of the 1904-05 Russo-Japanese War. Further, it commemorates the 60th anniversary of the end of World War II. History will look kindly on Koizumi and Putin, if they can resolve this long-standing and festering territorial dispute once and for all. The two leaders need to hammer out a proper road map for settlement of the territorial issue if they wish to securing their places in history. The four islands are not worth a long destabilizing battle in a potentially volatile region.

Kosuke Takahashi, a former staff writer at the Asahi Shimbun, is a freelance correspondent based in Tokyo. He can be contacted at letters@kosuke.net.