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Tselingrad
Rudny Aqmola from Space
Dec 2003
Kazakhstan has significant oil and gas reserves, and with the recent
opening of the Tengiz-Novorossiisk oil pipeline, the country is
beginning
to realize some of its enormous export potential. With predictions of
up
to 10 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the Kashagan offshore
oilfield,
Kazakhstan could become one of the world's major oil producers in the
next
decade.
March 2011
Kashagan D
Kazakhstan’s
Black Gold Mines
World 0il FEBRUARY 2011
The Caspian Sea is the world’s largest freshwater lake, depending on
your definition of “lake.” If you take the commonly accepted “body of
(usually fresh) water surrounded by land,” then the Caspian qualifies.
The water is “fresh” only in a sense, though. Salinity varies greatly
from north to south, from very low where the Caspian is fed by the
Volga and many other smaller rivers, to near-ocean salinity in the
south where it borders on Iran. The Garabogazkol embayment, that little
bump that sticks out on the eastern side (see photo) is salty indeed,
about 10 times as much as seawater.
If you call the Caspian a sea, with its 143,000 sq mi of water surface,
nobody is going to argue with you. It is divided into three distinct
regions: the south, which has deep waters (sometimes exceeding 3,000
ft), the middle region, with an average depth of about 600 ft, and the
North Caspian, which is essentially a very, very large puddle. As you
can tell from the satellite photo, the area is quite shallow (only 15
to 20 ft deep). Many times in its history it has dried up completely,
leaving a layer of evaporite like the Bonneville salt flats in Utah.
Too hot, too cold. It is not a terribly pleasant place. Although it
sits at a latitude comparable to the French Riviera, it is far from a
temperate climate. Bounded by deserts and swampy wetlands, below sea
level, the North Caspian is hot and humid in the summer, with legendary
(and malaria-carrying) mosquitoes, and in the winter it freezes solid.
Not to get all James Michener on you, but the geological history of the
area is important. For most of its existence, going back to the
ancient days of Gwandonaland, the region has been a shallow continental
sea. Marine organisms by the billions and trillions have lived and
died and dropped to the bottom to be buried in silt. These formed
large sedimentary basins, and that’s what makes the region interesting,
from an international energy perspective.
Kazakhstan.
The North Caspian lies within the nation of Kazakhstan, a vast country
that sits on the imaginary dividing line between Eastern Europe and
Central Asia. The ancient land that became Kazakh has been continually
inhabited for thousands of years. Following its conquest by the
Russian empire in the 19th century, it became the place where people
were sent involuntarily, both as exiles and as colonists, a practice
that continued into the Soviet era. Hence, the modern Kazakhs are a
hardy people with wide cultural diversity.
Tengiz.
In the time of the Czars, the country was known for its coal
resources. In 1979, while still part of the Soviet sphere, the first
major oil discovery was made on the wetlands of the North Caspian.
Tengiz Field, with some 25 billion bbl of oil in place, was the sixth
largest oil field in the world. Although the oil is abundant, it is
also high in sulfur, and the removal and handling of this contaminant
has been particularly challenging. Tengix also holds a considerable
amount of natural gas, though it is very sour, with lethal levels of
hydrogen sulfide. Soviet efforts to develop the field were mostly
haphazard. The first exploratory well to hit serious paydirt in 1986
resulted in a gas blowout that was so difficult to handle, at such
tremendous pressure and with high levels of poison gas, that it burned
for over a year before finally being extinguished and capped by Red
Adair.
After Kazakhstan gained its independence in 1991, interest in
petroleum exploration heated up. The new nation sought out foreign
help, and after three years of negotiation, the Kazakh government
signed a PSA with Chevron subsidiary Tengizchevroil to invest some $30
billion over four decades. At first, the government controlled 50% of
the project, but with the desperate economic conditions that
Kazakhstan found itself in during the early ‘90s, they were compelled
to sell of most of their stake to foreign companies. This was a
humbling lesson they never forgot.
Kashagan.
In 2000, Kashagan Field was discovered, with estimated commercial
reserves ranging from 9 billion to 16 billion bbl. Located in the
central North Caspian, it is actually five fields, Kashagan, Kalamkas
A, Kashagan SW, Aktote and Kairan. The find has the potential to make
Kazakhstan a heavyweight oil exporter, but its development has been
stymied by production delays and budget overruns. Kashagan has not yet
produced a commercial barrel of oil.
To develop the field, the Agip KCO consortium was created, consisting
of Eni, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Total, ConocoPhillips, Inpex and
KazMunaiGaz, the national oil company.
The start date for Kashagan production was pushed back repeatedly,
from 2005 to 2008, then 2010. The Kazakh government accused the
consortium of breach of contract and violating environmental
regulations. It revoked Eni’s operating license, and demanded a $40
billion bonus and an increased share in Kashagan. It also threatened to
fine the consortium for environmental damage. Project costs increased
from $57 billion to $136 billion. A new joint operating company, North
Caspian Operating Co. (NCOC), became operator. First production was
pushed back to late 2012 (and not everyone believes that). NCOC
announced that Phase II development would be delayed until 2018. The
plan is to boost production to 1.5 million bpd by 2021, but that date
is also in doubt.
The government’s heavy-handed dealing with NCOC has led some observers
to speculate on the possibility of a Putinstyle takeover. But despite
all the suspicion and ill will on both sides, there is a lot at stake
for both Kazakhstan and the companies. With all the challenges on the
big lake, they need each other. WO |
Kazakhstan South
Turgai basin 7 MMcfd and 440 b/d
By OGJ editors HOUSTON, Aug. 31 2006 -- Romania's state Petrom told
shareholders it is evaluating the size and commerciality of a
gas-condensate discovery on the Dzhusaly exploration license in the
South Turgai basin.
The South Rovnaya-1 exploration well went to TD 2,000 m, and first test
rates were 7 MMcfd and 440 b/d from an undisclosed formation.
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Caspian
Holdings identifies 7 new wells in Zhengeldy fields
November 29, 2004 -
Caspian Holdings PLC said it has
identified seven new wells at the Zhengeldy oil field, onshore from the
Caspian Sea in Kazakhstan, to be drilled, following further extensive
geological reviews.
The
first three wells should be drilled on schedule by the end of 2004,
with the next four wells to be completed in the first quarter of 2005.
Of
the seven wells, three are located in Jurassic levels and four are
located in Triassic/Jurassic levels. The first well was successfully
drilled to a target depth of 600 metre and logs show two oil bearing
levels with clean sands in the Jurassic.
Well number 114 will be perforated and completed this week and Caspian
will commence drilling well number 112.
Executive
chairman Michael Masterman said: "Drilling results from the first of
seven wells has shown two oil bearing levels in the Jurassic making us
confident about the results of the next six wells.
"This
drilling should bring us closer to achieving our goal of increasing
targeted daily production to 4300 bbls by the end of 2005."
Caspian
Holdings PLC said it has identified seven new wells at the Zhengeldy
oil field, onshore from the Caspian Sea in Kazakhstan, to be drilled,
following further extensive geological reviews.
The first three
wells should be drilled on schedule by the end of 2004, with the next
four wells to be completed in the first quarter of 2005.
Of the
seven wells, three are located in Jurassic levels and four are located
in Triassic/Jurassic levels. The first well was successfully drilled to
a target depth of 600 metre and logs show two oil bearing levels with
clean sands in the Jurassic.
Well number 114 will be perforated and completed this week and Caspian
will commence drilling well number 112.
Executive
chairman Michael Masterman said: "Drilling results from the first of
seven wells has shown two oil bearing levels in the Jurassic making us
confident about the results of the next six wells.
"This
drilling should bring us closer to achieving our goal of increasing
targeted daily production to 4300 bbls by the end of 2005."
rigzone.com
|
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GENERAL BACKGROUND
Kazakhstan has the Caspian Sea region's largest recoverable crude
oil
reserves, and accounts for approximately two-thirds of the roughly 1.5
million barrels per day (bbl/d) currently being produced in the region
(including regional oil producers Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and
Turkmenistan).
Accordingly, Kazakhstan has Central Asia's largest economy.
Kazakhstan's
real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 9.5% in 2002, to $24.5
billion,
resulting in a per capita GDP of $1,640 (roughly comparable to
Guatemala
and Ecuador). This marked only the third consecutive year of
significant
economic growth in Kazakhstan since independence.
Economic growth in recent years has been propelled by Kazakhstan's
growing
petroleum industry, and as a result, the state's budget revenue is
roughly
55% dependent on the oil sector. Several economic research efforts
conducted
in 2002 and 2003 highlighted the growing danger of possible
over-reliance
on the oil sector, with some analysts predicting that without more
investment
into the country's non-oil sectors, Kazakhstan's economic capacity will
be strained by 2007, thus stifling growth in the next decade. In an
effort
to reduce Kazakhstan's exposure to price fluctuations for energy and
commodities
exports, the government has created the National Fund of Kazakhstan. As
of June 2003, the National Fund held $2.3 billion.
Foreign investment continues to pour into Kazakhstan's potentially
enormous
oil and gas sector. The country has received $10 billion in foreign
investment
since independence in late 1991, including slightly over $1 billion in
2000. In January 2001, President Nazarbayev issued a decree
establishing
the National Fund to make the country less exposed to changing prices
for
energy and commodities exports. The National Fund, which received $660
million from U.S.
oil major Chevron in exchange for Kazakhstan's 5% stake in a joint
venture
at the giant Tengiz oil field, will be replenished with extra budget
revenues,
taxes from oil companies, and signing bonuses and royalties paid by
foreign
partners in joint ventures. In February 2001, Kazakh Economy Minister
Zhaksibek
Kulekeyev announced that the resource-rich Central Asian state planned
to attract $65-70 billion to its promising oil and gas sector over the
next decade.
OIL
Kazakhstan is the second largest oil producer
among
former Soviet republics after Russia, with output of 693,000 bbl/d in
2000.
Almost half of Kazakh oil production comes from three large onshore
fields:
Tengiz, Uzen, and Karachaganak. Kazakhstan has been eager to tap its
production
potential of over 3 million bbl/d, and former Prime Minister Nurlan
Balgimbayev
(now the head of Kazakhoil) has estimated that Kazakhstan could earn
$700
billion in revenues (including taxes) from offshore oil and gas fields
over the next 40 years.
Kazakhstan sits astride the northeast portion of the
Caspian
Sea and claims most of the Sea's biggest known oil fields. Kazakhstan's
combined onshore and offshore proven hydrocarbon reserves have been
estimated
to be between 9 and 17.6 billion barrels (comparable to OPEC members
Algeria
on the low end and Qatar on the high end). Although only a minor world
oil exporter in 2002, Kazakhstan is poised to become a more significant
player in world oil markets over the next decade.
Kazakhstan produced approximately 939,000 barrels
per
day (bbl/d) of total liquids in 2002 and consumed only 140,000 bbl/d,
resulting
in net exports of
799,000 bbl/d. Markets for exported Kazakhstani oil are
growing rapidly, with oil being delivered to world markets through the
Black Sea (via Russia) and the Persian Gulf (via swaps with Iran), as
well
as some additional traffic northward to Russia via pipeline and rail.
In order to develop its production, Kazakhstan has
opened
its resources to development by foreign companies. International oil
projects
have taken the form of joint ventures, production sharing agreements
(PSAs),
and exploration/field concessions. By far, the largest of these is the
Tengizchevroil joint venture. In April 1993, Chevron concluded the
$20-billion
Tengizchevroil joint venture to develop the Tengiz oil field, with 6 to
9 billion barrels of estimated oil reserves. The Tengizchevroil joint
venture
produced 190,000 bbl/d in 1999, and production could increase to
340,000
bbl/d by 2002. Given adequate export outlets, the Tengizchevroil joint
venture could reach peak production of 750,000 bbl/d by 2010.
President helps launch a new zinc plant
On October 27, president Nazarbayev took part in
the
launching ceremony of a new zinc plant in Balkhash town,
Karagandinskaya
oblast. The plant is owned and will be operated by Kazakhmys, one of
Kazakhstan’s
major corporations. Kazakhmys is the ninth largest copper producer and
the fourth largest silver producer worldwide. The cost of the plant is
approximately usd 120 million. The plant is expected to produce 40,000
tons of zinc in 2004, and to raise production to 100,000 tons of zinc
by
2006.(Interfax - Kazakhstan, October 28 03)
ADB extends credit facilities to Kazakhstan
The Asian development bank (ADB) has planned a
usd 190
million lending program to Kazakhstan in 2004-2006,according to the
country
strategic program for 2004-2006.The ADB announces it has four credits
planned
for this period to be spent on rural water supply, natural resource
management
and highway reconstruction. The ADB urged the government of Kazakhstan
to take advantage of its strong, oil-fueled growth (approximated at 12%
annually over the past three years) in order to more aggressively
combat
poverty in the republic and to more actively cooperate with other
central
Asian states. As of 31 December 2002, the ADB has provided a total of
usd
467 million to Kazakhstan.(Kazakhstan - newswire, October 28 03) |
Kazatomprom inaugurates new refining plant
On November 7, the national nuclear company
Kazatomprom,
the fourth largest uranium producer worldwide, started operation of a
new
refining plant at its "central" mine in southern Kazakhstan. The first
production batch will be released by late 2003, according to a
Kazatomprom
release. The anticipated initial capacity of the new plant is 1,700tons
of uranium oxide and protoxide per annum; the plant design capacity is
2,000 tons per annum. Kazatomprom invested usd 4.5 Million of its own
funds
to construct the facility, which is expected to process half of all
uranium
extracted by Kazatomprom in southern Kazakhstan. Kazatomprom will send
the other half to the Ulbinsk metallurgical plant, in eastern
Kazakhstan.
(Interfax -Kazakhstan, November 7 03) |
Confronting Kazakhstan's 'Dutch Disease'
March 26, 2003
As the United States is engaging in regime
change in Iraq,
the political turmoil in the Middle East is driving up the oil prices.
Kazakhstan is flush with oil and gas revenues.
However, without targeted government policy, the
long
term economic consequences of the hydrocarbon boom may lead to crowding
out investment in the non-petroleum sectors and appreciation of the
Kazakh
currency, the tenge. If President Nazarbaevs administration will
continue
to preside over increases in income disparities and underdevelopment,
it
eventually may face political instability due to inflated popular
expectations.
Kazakhstan has done little to prevent the Dutch disease, despite
warnings
from the World Bank.
BACKGROUND
According to government statistics, Kazakhstan is
boasting
an impressive 9.8 percent economic growth rate in 2002. It further
expects
GDP to grow at annual rates of 6.3-8.6 percent in 2004-2006, with total
growth of over 27 percent in the next four years. Whether this
ambitious
target is achieved depends on volatile energy prices and the quality of
national economic management in Astana.
According to President Nazarbaev, who spoke at
the recent
Kazakh-Italian business forum in Rome, Kazakhstans projected economic
growth
for the first quarter of 2003 is 9 percent. Italian investment in
Kazakhstan
reached $1.3 billion dollars. But this is barely a drop in the
ambitious
goal of $100 billion in investment funds Nazarbaev wants to attract in
the next 10-12 years. Kazakhstan may be interested in working with the
Italian state-owned ENI, the operator of Agip-led consortium in the
Kazakh
sector of Northern Caspian, and of the giant Karachanganak field, to
export
oil via Iran. If such investments materialize, experts say, they will
flow
overwhelmingly to the overheated oil and gas sector.
Oil revenues continue to remain in record
territory for
2003. Kazakhstan has boosted oil production by 16.6 percent in 2002, to
42 million tons. International oil majors, such as Shell and Hurricane
oil have significantly expanded their Kazakhstani holdings.
Natural gas production and downstream production
will
also grow: Kazakhstan has increased natural gas exports by 13.2
percent,
and produced 30 percent more of gas condensate.
Kazakhstan will be developing Phase Three of
the Karachaganak
gas condensate field, which will require a $2 billion investment. The
Amangeldy
field in southern Kazakhstan will be expanded, and ChevronTexaco will
open
a polyethylene plant in April 2003.
ExxonMobil is planning to develop a strategic
program
for Kazakhstan jointly with the Energy Ministry for years 2003-2010.
The
first iteration of the program will be submitted to the government in
the
third quarter of this year.
Kazakhstan is boosting its hard currency and
gold reserves,
which grew by 9.1 percent to $5.5 billion in January, and further
increased
the National Fund to $1.933 billion, while gold reserves grew by 14
percent
to $627 million, according to the Kazakh Central Bank press release
quoted
in the February Interfax Central Asian Business Report. The Central
Bank
said that Tenge money supply tripled, foreign deposits rose by 32.8
percent,
and bank deposits increased by 46.2 percent, while lending rose 37
percent
in 2002.
Using growing demand for energy, Kazakhstan
announced
plans to become the worlds largest uranium producer by the year
2027.
Its national nuclear corporation, Kazatomprom, has increased the ore
production
from 794,000 tons in 1998 to 2.4 million tons in 2002. As it currently
produces only five percent of the global output, the goal to become
number
one seems excessively ambitious. Kazakhstan has increased uranium
production
by 34 percent in 2002, and is planning to expand export to China, Japan
and Russia.
Astana is also interested in boosting its coal
production
from 70 million tons in 2002 to 74 million tons in 2003. The January
2003
figures are higher than January 2002 by 21 percent.
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IMPLICATIONS
This natural resources windfall is the strategic
window
of opportunity for Astana to address four structural defects of its
energy-driven
economy: corruption; capital flight; a dysfunctional social safety net;
and the money-losing nature of the non-extracting sectors of the
economy.
High-level corruption and capital flight may
be the most
difficult to resolve.
Most often perpetrated, or aided and
abetted, by
top government officials, it is a net loss to the people of
Kazakhstan.
Police measures are in themselves not effective, as law enforcement is
corrupt and controlled by the perpetrators. The fish is rotting from
its
head. The government is unlikely to crack down on organized crime and
corruption
which plague the economy. As long as the government is not prosecuting
the most odious exporters of capital, even if they are politically
connected
insiders, the local economy will remain too inhospitable and
bureaucracies
too corrupt to make investment in non-energy sector attractive.
Second, it is the time for the Kazakhstani
government
to bring internal energy prices, including natural gas and coal, to
world
levels. Todays high oil prices will allow to provide subsidies to
retired
or laid off workers, while closing down inefficient, energy-guzzling
enterprises
and hiking railroad tariffs. Energy can be exported to increase
revenue.
Some of the workers in remote company towns can be relocated to more
livable
venues.
Third, social sector reform is long overdue.
While salaries
are higher in the energy sector by a factor of at least two in
Kazakhstan,
most of the gigantic profits are not invested back home to create jobs
outside of the oil and gas sector, nor are tax proceeds efficiently
distributed
to support the elderly, sick and poor.
CONCLUSION
The Kazakh government can battle the Dutch
disease by
stimulating non-energy business development and job creation, by
simplifying
registration for new business and reducing corporate taxes and
employment
payments for these newly created entities. As USAID and a number of
NGOs
repeatedly demonstrated around the world, micro-lending to boost
entrepreneurship is yet another way to decrease unemployment and
poverty.
In addition, some of the structural
unemployment 20 percent
in Kazakhstan, even higher in energy-poor Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan can
be alleviated by opening the doors of the oil and gas sectors to
workers
from the areas hit with particularly high unemployment. This can be
achieved
by loosening severe interior ministry residence registration rules,
which
are a hick-up of the old Soviet era propiska system, and by providing
better
living conditions in the company towns owned by the extracting
industries.
As World Bank Vice President Johannes F. Linn has suggested recently,
regional
cooperation is likely to alleviate some of the structural asymmetries
and
stimulate growth. Clearly, cooperation on water utilization, pipelines,
transport, and commerce is the most logical.
Unequal income distribution in Kazakhstan,
where average
salary is barely over $1,000 a year, (and even more so in Kyrgyzstan
and
Tajikistan with only $200-$300 per capita incomes), may lead to
economic
dislocation, social conflict, and uncontrolled migration. Kazakhstani
leaders
were forewarned. Both Astana and international financial institutions
should
address these disparities while the energy bonanza lasts.
AUTHORS BIO: Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is Research
Fellow in
Russian and Eurasian Studies at the Heritage Foundation and author,
with
Gerald P. ODriscoll, of The Road to Economic
Prosperity
for Post-Saddam Iraq (2003). His expertise includes international
energy
security. This piece was originally published on the Central
Asia-Caucasus
Institute website.
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Geo-economics and energy development in Central
Asia
By Dr Robert M. Cutler 24-04-01
The opening, or at least the beginning of the
filling,
of the oil pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), from the
Tengiz field in northwest Kazakhstan to Novorossiisk on the
Russian
Black Sea coast, received deserved if extended -- indeed sensational --
publicity several weeks ago. The CPC line is, after all,
the
first new pipeline to be built from the Caspian region since the demise
of the Soviet Union. The pumping of oil into the pipeline began
belatedly,
but it is now expected that the first tanker will be filled in
Novorossiisk
in June.
Yet all the attention paid to western
Kazakhstan makes
it difficult for most observers to gain an understanding of the overall
energy balance in Central Asia. For example, sight is often lost
of Uzbekistan's regional role as an energy producer because of its two
better-endowed neighbours, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Yet as
explained
below, Turkmenistan does not really come into play although it is
certainly
a regional actor; rather, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are the main
players
on the scene.
This article calls attention to overlooked
aspects of
the Central Asian energy balance, with special attention paid to
Kazakhstan
and Uzbekistan and the contrasts between them and the
significance
of those contrasts.
1. The Caspian? Don't look where they're
pointing
One recent development widely noted was
Kazakhstani President
Nursultan Nazarbayev's statement of commitment -- in a Memorandum of
Understanding
signed last month with Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan -- to pump
Kazakhstani
crude into the planned Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. (The crude
may
come from the offshore Vostochny Kashagan field, which is still to be
developed.)
However, other developments in the Kazakhstani
energy
sector have attracted less notice.
Even though these developments are more modest
than the
CPC and BTC projects, their potential effects are no less
wide-ranging.
For example, disputes between Kazakhstan and China over the management
and development of the Aktobemunaigaz (AMG) and Uzenmunaigaz
(UMG)
complexes have continued. As a result, it appears that plans to build a
pipeline from western Kazakhstan into western China have been shelved,
even though those plans were in fact an integral part of the
contract
that the Chinese National Petroleum Company (CNPC) signed to acquire
AMG
and UMG assets. Some of the oil produced by these two companies
is
taken by rail to the border between the two countries and then loaded
for
transport into China, but this is a money-losing operation that
Beijing
is subsidizing only to keep its hand in the game.
The game may not go on much longer.
Towards the end of last month, a senior CNPC
official
was quoted as saying that the pipeline from Kazakhstan to China will
not
be built in the near future and that whether it was built at all would
depend on the size of the hydrocarbon reserves found in the region.
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan's state oil pipeline
operator KazTransOil
announced that it has established another route for oil from the
region.
Like Tengiz oil, AMG oil has high
concentrations
of sulphur compounds that require dedicated pipelines and make the use
of shared pipelines impossible. Until very recently, the crude
was
confined to a special pipeline from the Zhanazhol field to Russia's
refinery
in Orsk. But a "sweetening" refinery was put into operation
earlier
this year at the Bestamak oil-loading rail terminal, the product of
which
goes to the Atyrau refinery for subsequent pumping into the
Atyrau-Samara
pipeline and delivery to Black Sea ports.
In addition, according to KazTransOil, AMG
crude will
now also be delivered through the oil-loading rack at Bestamak to the
port
of Aktau and then taken by tanker to Makhachkala (in Dagestan)
for
pumping into the Makhachkala-Tikhoretsk-Novorossiisk pipeline.
2. Uzbekistan's regional energy
lever
Another neglected but important event is
Kazakhstan's
recently announced decision to develop the Amangeldy gas field in the
south
of the country. The significance of this decision is that
Uzbekistan's
influence in Central Asia will diminish still further as Kazakhstan
continues
to be the motor not only of multilateral diplomacy but also of
energy
development.
The Amangeldy field is planned to supply
customers in
southern Kazakhstan, where current demand for roughly 1.5 bn cmpy of
gas
is satisfied by imports from Uzbekistan. Amangeldy and the
adjacent
Airykty deposits are estimated to contain reserves of 22 to 25 bn cm
and
could provide southern Kazakhstan with 600 mm cmpy of gas
beginning
in 2003.
Although Uzbekistani energy resources are
often overlooked
in the focus on Turkmenistani gas and Kazakhstani oil, Uzbekistan has
in
recent years -- indeed in recent months -- used its gas as a
political
lever against other countries in the region. In particular, Tashkent
has
successfully used gas for leverage in seeking short-term economic
fixes for its dire domestic situation.
For example, Uzbekistan last fall agreed to
deliver 850
mm cm of gas to southern Kazakhstan at a concessionary price of $ 40
per
1,000 cm in exchange for the reconnection of telephone lines with
Kazakhstan and the right to have its trains pass through Kazakhstan. It
obtained this agreement even though it owes a $ 4 mm debt to
Kaztelekom
and rail-transit debts of $ 2 mm.
So it seems that Russia is not the only state
in Central
Eurasia that uses energy supplies and pipelines for political
arm-twisting;
it just is more able to do so than most others. Uzbekistan too is
using its gas supplies for leverage against its neighbours. Meanwhile,
Tashkent's version of "Realpolitik" arm-twisting is fuelling the
growing perception in Central Asia that Uzbekistan is seeking to become
a regional hegemony.
As such, antipathy to Tashkent is on the rise
in the region.
For example, Uzbekistan made territorial demands on Kyrgyzstan last
year
concerning the ethnic Uzbek enclave of Sokh while engaging in a
temporary
suspension of gas exports to Kyrgyzstan as winter was beginning.To make
up for the gas shortages, Kyrgyzstan increased output at its
hydro-electric
power plants, a move that diminished water levels in reservoirs on
which
Uzbekistan draws to irrigate spring planting. This side-effect
then
led Uzbekistan to renounce its territorial claims and assert its
adherence
to international legal norms for the resolution territorial
disputes.
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The issue was especially sensitive since
Uzbekistani
troops in had the past violated Kyrgyzstan's sovereignty by holding
military
exercises on its territory without first asking permission.
(Ethnic
Uzbeks account for one seventh of Kyrgyzstan's population, and
Uzbekistan
is the predominant power in southern Kyrgyzstan, which is linked
to the northern part of the country only by air.)
The cultural geography of Central Asian
energy
There is a reason why in the Soviet era the five
republics
we now call "Central Asia" were called, in Russia, "Kazakhstan and
Middle
Asia." The demography and especially the topography of
Kazakhstanare
split between those of Central Asia and those of southern Siberia. This
split is becoming all the more evident as centrifugal forces
threaten
to tear the country apart.
The economic life of the western part of the
country,
especially the northwest (and as typified by energy pipeline flows), is
becoming more closely linked with the West via trans-Caspian
trade
and communications flows. Likewise, western Kazakhstan's links with the
South Caucasus, which is geographically part of Europe (a fact
that
the European Union has recently recognized publicly), are increasingly
direct. The north and northeast sections of the country,
meanwhile,
remain connected to southern Siberia also through trade in raw
materials.
And the south is economically and even culturally separate from
both
of the other sections.
By contrast, Uzbekistan, because of its
geographic situation,
does not suffer so much from those types of problems. Indeed,
Uzbekistan's
"periphery-periphery" problems are of a wholly different sort. Simply
put,
the population is exploding most rapidly in areas where jobs are least
likely to be created, even if the entire system became more
receptive
to foreign direct investment overnight. Five of the eight most densely
populated provinces in the former Soviet area are in Uzbekistan.
(Besides the region in which the capital Tashkent is located, these are
Andijan, Ferghana, Namangan and Khorezm.)
Yet, Uzbekistan is perhaps the most Central Asian
of
all five countries in the region. It is, for example, the one most
affected
by incursions of Islamic militants based in Kyrgyzstan and
supported
by Afghanistan. Yet none of the geopolitical questions most pressing to
Tashkent are directly energy-related. They might be easier to
handle
if they were.
For the sake of completeness, mention must
also be made
of Turkmenistan, which, with a population of close to 5 mm, is more
easily
held under the iron grip of President Saparmurad Niyazov. He
experiences
no political "periphery-periphery" problem simply becausethe
opportunities
for social mobilization of popular discontent have much less
chance
of reaching critical mass. For his development strategy, Niyazov had
hoped
to be able to export part of his country's huge gas reserves to
India
by way of Pakistan, but for that an export pipeline would have to
traverse
Afghanistan.
The lack of international recognition of the
Taleban regime
in Kabul has made financing for such a pipeline impossible to find.
Meanwhile,
Niyazov also has unrealised dreams of a pipeline to China.
However,
as it now stands, Turkmenistan's pipelines mainly feed Russia by way of
Uzbekistan. Thus Turkmenistan is not really a player in the
energy balance of Central Asia proper. With its distinctive history and
ongoing "Turkmenisation" of the national culture, it stands apart
from both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan (although it is in conflict with
the
latter over border demarcation and related issues). So Uzbekistan
is more clearly Central Asian than Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan's
profile
verges at times on being South Asian. But Kazakhstan is Russian,
European and Asian all at the same time.
4. Conclusion: Development in Uzbekistan and
Kazakhstan
contrasted
The contrast between Kazakhstan's success in
developing
its energy resources and Uzbekistan's failure to develop its own can be
traced back to 1994, when Uzbekistan (now sinking ever deeper
into
the mire of economic stagnation), imposed currency-exchange
restrictions
in an effort to protect the national economy during a year when
the
cotton crop was disastrous. Those restrictions were never lifted, and
they
have choked the country's development to this day. The controls
are
quite severe and make for a very discouraging foreign-investment
environment.
Recent reports from Uzbekistan to the effect
that the
country's banking system has made some progress on the reform front are
belied by the more recent decision by the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) not to replace its resident representative because of the
failure
to reform the exchange-rate system. The IMF has not provided
assistance
to Tashkent for some time but had maintained a mission there in order
to
facilitate communication between the two sides. Meanwhile, other
reports suggest that the World Bank will reduce the value of its next
three-year
lending program in the country to an extremely modest 150 mm.
By contrast, Kazakhstan accepted basically all
recommendations
made to it by the IMF throughout the 1990s.
The country completed its banking system
reform
program and is set to experience real economic growth, notwithstanding
the immiseration of significant segments of the population. The two
clouds
on the horizon for Kazakhstan are illegal immigration and domestic
migration
on the one hand, and, on the other hand, militant Islamic
fundamentalism.
Kazakhstan in general and Almaty in particular are actually a pole of
attraction
for economic refugees from other countries in the region.
Indeed, Kazakhstan is relatively stable, and
it is actually
possible to make a living in the capital. For this reason, internal
population
shifts are also occurring because of the absence of work in towns
and villages throughout the country. The threat from militant
fundamentalism
-- and this will probably be the first year that it actually
manifests
in Kazakhstan -- comes mainly in the south of the country. That is why
moves towards energy self- sufficiency in Kazakhstan, especially
in that part of the country to be supplied by the Amangeldy field, are
potentially so significant.
Robert M. Cutler was educated at the
Massachusetts Institute
of Technology and the University of Michigan and holds a Ph.D. in
political
science. He has worked in European and Eurasian affairs for 20
years,
specializing in Euro-Caspian and post-Soviet energy. His management
specialties
include organizational analysis and design and organizational learning
under complex systems of information and cross-cultural
communication.
Source: NewsBase
|
KazTransGas: Stability, Reliability and Prospects.
[13.03.2003] By Alevtina Donskikh
Three years have passed off after KazTransGas
Co. was
given functions of the national operator, wholesale purchaser and
seller
of gas. The Government made this decision to provide gas supply to all
remote regions and bring to order import-export
flows. As gas
production
was rising, it became necessary to concentrate entire management
of the branch in the hands of the Government.
In future gas production will amount to
75bn cubic meters a year against 10bn in
2001-2002.
Needs of our economy demanded this step too.
Specialists
forecast demand of RK economy may rise up to 15-16bn m3 by 2010.
A strict term of establishment of KazTransGas
was also construction of local distributing networks to supply gas to
consumers, establishment of distributing
companies, whose
principal
functions would be gas supply and collection of payments.
Today we can already consider advisability of
this decision.
Experts think return to state regulation afforded to lead the
branch from impasse and overcome negative
aftereffects
of the
USSR collapse. Those changes were to make the branch a manageable and stably working economy.
The work was implemented in few stages
according to special
strategy. In the late 2000 KazTransGas
purchased RK
gas
transport business from Belgian Tractebel C.A.
This was
an important step demanding big capitals to reanimate pipelines,
which were badly destroyed.
Capability of main gas pipeline the Middle
Asia - Center
(MAC), being the shortest international rout for Turkmenian and Uzbek
gas
through Kazakhstan to Russia and Western Europe, was some 30bn m3 a
year. 3939 km of the pipeline
are situated in Kazakhstan; total length
is
9155 km. Electrolytic protection at lines was badly disturbed and
protection
of underground lines was less than 70 per cent.
Hundreds
of km of operating gas lines were disconnected from the general system;
gas-pumping units were not repaired. Therefore the company allotted
over
230mn USD for repair in 2001-2002.
Now protection of the pipes and underground
lines is completely
restored. 29 gas-pumping units are repaired.
The company is
ready
to launch a pumping unit at pipelines Orenburg-Novopskov and "Souz",
compressor
stations "Uralsk" and "Chizha". The company's crews replaced 12 km of
pipes
and contractors - 20 km. Capability of MAC was increased to 50bn m3 a
year
thanking to parallel work of two lines at Beineu-Makat part.
For the first time in the last years the
company purchased
heavy road-building machinery for regional branches. The company
continues
implementing diagnostics of the most destroyed sections. Managers
introduce
advanced techniques of repair. For example, this year the company
replaces
a siphon at passing across the Ural River near "Redut", by applying
technique
of horizontal-directional drilling under the bottom of the river. This
technique is applied in Kazakhstan for the first time; its advantage is
preservation of flora and fauna in Ural's flood-lands.
The company reanimates its economy, applies
new technologies,
gradually restores capital assets and raises capability of the
pipeline.
According to forecast of specialists, by 2005, when the company will
finish
repair, annual volumes of transported Turkmen gas through MAC will
increase
to 50bn m3, Uzbek one - to 3bn m3, and Kazakh one - to 7bn m3.
Cost of the total 10-year modernization of MAC
is estimated
at 1,3bn USD. In addition, for 2003-2005 the enterprise intends to
invest
over 500mn USD to modernization of main pipelines. These will be own
means
of the company plus domestic and foreign investments.
KazTransGas has found principal decision of
the problem
of gas supply to southern regions of Kazakhstan, which completely
depends
upon Uzbek gas and its transit through Kyrghyzia. Demand of RK southern
regions on gas amounts to 1,5bn m3 annually. In February 2002 the
company
signed contract with Uztransgas and in 2002 and 2003 purchased gas at
40
USD for a thousand m3.
|
After long negotiations in December 2002 the
company
signed agreement with Kyrghyz side on joint inspection of main pipeline
Tashkent-Bishkek-Almaty situated in Kyrghyzia. Special joint
Kazakh-Kyrghyz
commission inspected those lines. The examination proved the Kyrghyz
lines
being in very bad condition. One third of pipes need replacement and
complete
re-insulation. Now the companies work out recommendations on repair and
reconstruction of 132 km, including variants of financing. The
situation
is rather serious, so KazTransGas is going to approach the
Government
with proposal to establish a joint RK-Kyrghyzia company.
KazTransGas has always executed terms of
contracts, hasn't
had debts to the Uzbek side and always protected interests of
Kazakhstan
in the gas market of the region.
Therefore, to allay dependence from Uzbek supply
and
Kyrghyz transit the company launched prospecting of Amangeldy gas field
of Zhambyl region. Total cost of the project is 132,4mn USD; republican
budget allots 51mn of those. Now the company is conducting
negotiations
with potential investors on financing issues and joint
development
of the field. KazTransGas' experts forecast Amangeldy field will yield
600mn-1bn m3 of gas annually for 20 years.
Construction of gas wells at Amangeldy field
is planned
to complete in 2003. 17 wells will be exploited. Three wells are
tested,
one well is conserved. The fifth well is drilled. 65% of equipment is
produced
and ready to ship. 2100 tons of pipes and gas pipeline equipment has
been
delivered. The works are conducted in day and night regime, KazTransGas
specialists believe 193-kilometer Amangeldy-Taraz gas pipeline
constructed
by mid summer of 203. The gas field is expected to launch in
upcoming
August. The specialists hope 700-million cubic meters of natural gas,
40
thousand tons of condensed gas and the same amount of liquefied gas
pumped
from Amangeldy field to allow them to resolve gas supply problem
southern
Kazakhstan has faced.
Moreover, governmental commission presented
"KazTransGas"
the right to develop hydrocarbons exploration at gas deposits of
Moyinkumski
and Talasski districts of Zhambyl region. The area of the deposits'
territory
makes 8 810,7 square kilometers. The work of the company resulted in
the
trend to stabilize inside republic gas supplying, especially the one of
its southern region. In mid ninetieth gas distribution networks of the
region appeared in the ownership of different private companies. But
their
majority faced the problem of nonpayment. It rendered a negative
influence
upon the state of the networks. The systems sank into degradation.
Debts
grew. There appeared gas-supplying problems. Bad debtors were cut
off.
To resolve all the problems the responsibility
for gas
supplying of southern regions was laid on KazTransGas. Its affiliate
KazTransGas
Distribution company was created for the purposes. The enterprise
is a wholesale supplier of natural gas to regional consumers. Much was
done; the market got free from different intermediate structures, the
prices
grew stable, discipline of payments improved, technological losses of
gas
decreased. Everything aforementioned influenced upon the growth of
tariffs,
there appeared a trend of annual three percent increase in the amounts
of gas shipments to internal market. In 2001 the amount made 5,1
billion
cubic meters. The same growth in amounts was registered in the first
half
of 2002.
Work with suppliers and consumers, severed
approaches
and huge funds invested resulted in obvious successes.
KazTransGas allocated 5 million dollars to
restore gas
distribution system of Shymkent and repaid the debts of its
predecessors.
In February of 2002 KazTransGas Distribution started supplying Taraz
with
gas. At present 75% of the city's private sector are supplied with
gas.
In early current year the situation with
Aktobe region
gas supplying aggravated. The region is known to consume 36% of total
amounts
of natural gas imported in Kazakhstan. Local enterprise Aktobegas sank
in 1,7 billion tenge debts. The region appeared at stake to be cut off
gas supplying. On October the 1st KazTransGas Distribution started
supplying
Aktobe region and the city of Aktobe with gas. Despite of significant
debts
of population, the company did not cut anyone off.
Successful resolution of current problems and
implementation
of new promising projects, stable development of the company itself
prepared
the grounds for its international rating growth. Recently international
rating agency Standards and Poor's allocated " BB" crediting rating to
KazTransGas group and to Intergas Central Asia company. The forecast of
ratings is stable. Such a high rating means the activity of the
companies,
their places at gas transportation market, stability of their financial
state and high trustability recognized.
The fact is strengthening the companies'
positions at
the negotiations with foreign investors, suppliers, financial
institutions.
It allows them to count for lower interest rates when attracting local
and foreign funds. So, the rating works for the companies. The
contracts
signed recently with foreign partners showed the work successful.
|
Amangeldy gas field: Readiness
21.10.2003
ASTANA.KAZINFORM. As Kazinform has earlier
informed, on
these days blue fuel of Amangeldy gas field is
to be
supplied
to Taraz. The final testing of the gas
transportation system
before
launching has been carried out on the fifth
compressor
station.
This is the very place where the Amengeldy
line incises
into the main gas pipeline.
According to head of Taraz manufacturing gas
pipeline management Nazhentai Bukharbayev, Amangeldy gas has been
accepted. The
system, which has been transporting gas for many years is absolutely
orderly.
|
According to the preliminary assessment, the
stated Amangeldy
field gas reserves amount not less than 25 billion cubic meters. From
the
wells situated on the field there will be supplied up to 1000 900
cubic
meters of gas a day. As for the cost of Amangeldy gas, this issue is
still
in the state of economic working-out.
While Amangeldy complex builders are getting
ready for
the launch of its first line, the brigades of Kazburgaz-Taraz are
opening
up new vistas. Out of 13 wells taken for tunneling one is fully ready
and
three more are to be ready soon.
On subcontract terms there has been involved
one more
organization – Udmurtgeologiya from Russia, which has recently
delivered
its machine, assembled it and started well tunneling. The front of
drilling
works is been enlarged. |
Amangeldy Gas Production Train Starts
Operations
On October 23 president Nazarbayev inaugurated
the first
production line at the Amangeldy gas field (Zhambyl oblast), Interfax
reported.
The ceremony marked the end of the first stage
of field
development, with
completion
of five of seventeen gas wells, a gas treatment plant, and construction
of a 193-kilometer pipeline connecting Amangeldy field with the Bukhara
-Tashkent-Bishkek- Almaty gas pipeline in area of Taraz. The second
development
phase (timeline not mentioned) will include bringing on line there
remaining
twelve wells and completion of all associated infrastructure.
|
The second-phase capacity of 1.93 Million
cubic meters
a day will supply the
Zhambyl power plant, the Zhambyl energy combine,
local
chemical plants, and other industries in the region.
The development of Amangeldy will cost usd 131
million,
with usd 51 million coming from the national budget and the remaining
usd
80 million provided by Kaztransgaz and other investors.
Amangeldy field holds 22.4 Billion cubic
meters of gas
and is expected to produce 600 million - 1 billion cubic meters of gas
a year for twenty years at a cost of usd 22 per 1,000 cubic meters.
(Interfax
- Kazakhstan, October 30)
|
Development of new gas field
The gas transport company KazTransGas has
started
developing the new Amangeldy gas field (AGF). The Amangeldy field is
located
in the south of Kazakhstan, 160 km from Taraz city. Preliminary
estimates
of AGF's reserves are about 25 billion cubic meters of gas. The field
is
thought to be capable of at least 12-13 years of profitable production.
The field is in a good location. The
development
of the field will allow energy independence for region of Southern
Kazakhstan,
the most densely populated region of the country, through connection of
the new Amangeldy-Taraz main gas pipeline to the Gazli-Almaty
network.
Existing power transmission lines and a motorway
to the
field, will reduce the cost of the project (a high Kazakhstan
Government
official stated, however, that if the Uzbekistan Government followed a
consistent and fair price policy for gas, it would be easier for
Kazakhstan
to continue to purchase Uzbek gas, rather than developing a new
field).
Today the government remains the first and the
only investor
in AGF.
In an April 11, 2001 investment presentation it
outlined
its development strategy. It plans to allocate USD 50 million to
develop
the field. Of this amount, USD 18 million is to be spent during 2001,
including
prospecting, complete works to develop the field, and geological
engineering
prospecting works. According to independent experts, the total
amount
required to finance the development of the entire group of fields may
come
to USD 700-750 million.
|
For the first phase, the development will
minimally cost
USD 76.7 million. This amount includes construction of the gas pipeline
(USD 36.7 million), drilling and servicing wells (USD 21 million),
construction
of a gas processing plant (USD 10 million) and miscellaneous expenses
(USD
9 million).
The second phase may require USD 258 million.
This includes
further development, internal pipelines, processing and further
prospecting
drilling. ABN-AMRO Bank, Citibank, Islamic Bank for
Development
as well as some Kazakh banks have expressed interest in development of
the field. The total number of companies that expressed interest in the
project is 30.
U.S. Companies interested in the project of
Amangeldy
field may contact KazTransGas directly as shown below:
KasTranGas
142 Bogenbay Batyra Almaty 480091, Kazakhstan Tel.: [7] (3272)
62-30-09,
66-11-30 Fax: [7] (3272) 58-82-80 E-mail: Administrator@Kaztransgas.kz
Contact: Aydarhan Kusainov, Vice-President U.S. EMBASSY
CONTACT
INFORMATION U.S. Embassy Commercial Service Almaty,
Kazakhstan
531 Seyfullin Street, 3d Floor Almaty 480091, Kazakhstan Tel.: [7]
(3272)
58-79-18, 58-79-20 Fax: [7] (3272) 58-79-22 E-mail:
almaty.office.box@mail.doc.gov
Contact: James Fluker, Senior Commercial Officer Rita Kan, Commercial
Assistant
Andrey Chursov, BISNIS Representative
INTERNATIONAL COPYRIGHT, U.S. & FOREIGN
COMMERCIAL
SERVICE AND U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2001. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED OUTSIDE
OF THE UNITED STATES.
|
ExxonMobil Kazakhstan Participates in Two
North
Caspian Discoveries
NOV 24,2003 ( BW)(TX-EXXON-MOBIL-CORP)(XOM)
IRVING,
Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) today
announced that
its subsidiary, ExxonMobil Kazakhstan Inc., has participated in two
discoveries
in new prospects on the North Caspian Production Sharing Agreement
(NCPSA)
contract area.
The first exploration wells on each of the
Aktote and
Kashagan Southwest prospects were completed successfully and
encountered
hydrocarbon-bearing intervals. Additional evaluation will be required
to
determine if the hydrocarbon accumulations are commercially viable.
Aktote-1 and Kashagan Southwest-1 are the
third and fourth
discoveries on the NCPSA following Kashagan and Kalamkas. The
world-class
Kashagan discovery was announced in 2000 and declared commercial in
June
2002 with estimated resources of more than nine billion barrels of oil.
|
The drilling of Aktote-1 was carried out on
an artificial
island. The well was drilled to a total depth of 14,000 feet (4,267
meters)
and was tested at a rate of 1,550 barrels per day on a 28/64-inch choke.
Drilling of Kashagan Southwest-1 was also
performed on
an artificial island. The well was drilled to a total depth of 19,275
feet
(5,875 meters) and was tested at a rate of 2,100 barrels per day on a
32/64-inch
choke.
"The Aktote and Kashagan Southwest discoveries
provide
further encouragement that the North Caspian can become an important
resource
base to help supply the world's growing energy demands," said Jon
Thompson,
president of ExxonMobil Exploration Company.
The North Caspian PSA covers almost 1.4
million gross
acres. Companies involved in exploration and development of this area
are
Eni (Operator - 16.67 percent), ExxonMobil (16.67 percent), BG (16.67
percent),
Inpex (8.33 percent), Phillips (8.33 percent), Shell (16.67 percent),
and
Total (16.67 percent). Upon completion of the sale of BG
International's
interest in the NCPSA, ExxonMobil's interest will become 20.37 percent.
In addition, ExxonMobil affiliates have a 25 percent interest in the
Tengiz
field, one of the world's largest oil fields, located on the Eastern
shore
of the Caspian Sea, and a 7.5 percent interest in the Caspian Pipeline
Consortium.
|
Tengizchevroil exported about 170,000 bbl/d of crude oil in 1999
through
the Russian pipeline system; by barge and rail to the Baltic; and by
ship,
pipeline, and rail to the Black Sea. Tengizchevroil also is considering
use of the Tengiz-Aktau pipeline, which underwent a $100-million
upgrade
in 2000 that increased the pipeline's export capacity from 60,000 bbl/d
to 160,000 bbl/d. The March 2001 opening of the Caspian Pipeline
Consortium's
990-mile pipeline from the Tengiz oil field to the Russian Black Sea
port
of Novorossiisk will allow Kazakhstan to boost its oil exports
substantially.
The pipeline's capacity, initially 140,000-160,000 barrels per day
(bbl/d),
eventually will increase to 1.34-million bbl/d.
Kazakhstan projects that its crude oil and gas
condensate
production will rise to almost 800,000 bbl/d in 2001. Most of the
growth
will be provided by the Tengizchevroil venture, the Karachaganak gas
condensate
field consortium, and from new fields coming on stream: North Buzachi,
Sazankurak, Saztobe, Airankol, and others. By 2002, Kazakhstan plans to
have other major fields on stream: Alibekmola, Urikhtau, and Kozhasai.
In addition, preliminary drilling in the offshore Kashagan block by the
Offshore Kazakhstan International Operating Company (OKIOC) has turned
up spectacular results, with analysts estimating possible oil reserves
of up to 40 billion barrels (10 billion barrels of which are thought to
be recoverable). Although the OKIOC is being very tight-lipped about
Kashagan's
potential output, oil analysts already are hailing the field as the
largest
oil discovery in 30 years, bringing fresh optimism to the Caspian Sea
region's
oil supply potential.
Development of the country's Kashagan oilfield and construction of
additional
export pipelines in the coming decade could make Kazakhstan one of
the world's largest oil producers and exporters. In February 2001, Italy's
ENI SpA won a fiercely-contested battle to be the operator for the
Kashagan
field. Kazakhstan expects that the first oil from the field, which
OKIOC
is still exploring, will flow in 2005. However, in mid-April 2001 the
Kazakh
Ministry of Natural Resources & Environmental Protection
temporarily
suspended drilling in the Kashagan block after two recent oil spills.
Kazakhstan needs to resolve two major issues in order for it to
increase
oil production further. Development of the offshore potential of
Kazakhstan
in the Caspian Sea has been slowed by a dispute over ownership rights.
This disagreement ties in with a broader debate between Caspian
Sea Region states over how the Caspian Sea should be treated under
international law (including
environmental issues). In 1997, Kazakhstan signed a communique with
Turkmenistan
pledging to divide their sections of the Caspian along median lines,
and
in July 1998 Kazakhstan signed a bilateral agreement with Russia (not
yet
ratified) dividing the northern Caspian seabed along median lines
between
the two countries. Both of these agreements are interim until the
status
of the Caspian Sea is settled among all of the littoral states. In
April
2001, a planned summit of the Caspian littoral heads of state was
postponed
for the second time in a month.
The other major issue is the development of export routes to bring
Kazakhstan's
oil to world markets. In addition to the CPC pipeline, several
additional
oil
export
pipeline routes from the Caspian Sea region are under consideration
or in development. Kazakhstan had net exports of approximately 473,000
bbl/d of crude oil and and condensate in 2000. The majority was shipped
by pipeline, mainly via the Atyrau-Saransk-Samara pipeline through
Russia,
with additional supplies shipped by rail and by barge across the
Caspian
Sea. In March 2001, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev appeared to
give
Kazakhstan's support to the Baku (Azerbaijan)-Ceyhan
(Turkey)
Main
Export Pipeline, saying that the first oil from the giant Kashagan
field
would go to the pipeline, which is slated to begin construction in the
summer of 2001 and be ready by September 2004. However, Kazakhstan has
not officially pledged its support for the pipeline, preferring to keep
its export options
open.
Under the former Soviet Union, Kazakhstan's pipeline network was
integrated
with the Russian pipeline system, and all of Kazakhstan's oil was
exported
through the Russian pipeline system. Kazakhstan's oil production is
concentrated
in the West, and two export pipelines transport this oil to refineries
and export pipelines in Russia. However, Kazakhstan's urban and
industrial
centers are concentrated in the East, and because they are not
connected
to the production centers, they must import oil via an oil pipeline
from
Siberia. As a result, Kazakhstan's pipeline system is fragmented,
consisting
of the two export pipelines in the West, the import pipeline in the
East,
and a smaller internal line in the South.
Refining
Kazakhstan has three major oil refineries supplying the northern region
(at Pavlodar), western region (at Atyrau), and southern region (at
Shymkent),
with total refining capacity of 427,000 bbl/d. The refinery at Pavlodar
is supplied mainly by a crude oil pipeline from Western Siberia, the
Atyrau
refinery runs solely on domestic crude from northwest Kazakhstan, and
the
Shymkent refinery currently uses oil from Kazakh fields at Kumkol,
Aktyubinsk,
and Makatinsk, but utilization is only 60% because it is unable to
process
other oils.
Since their pipeline networks are interconnected, Russia and
Kazakhstan
plan to swap 50,000 bbl/d of oil. Kazakhstan will deliver oil to
Russian
refineries on the Atyrau-Samara pipeline and Russia will deliver oil on
the Omsk-Pavlodar pipeline for processing at Kazakh refineries. In
addition,
Kazakhstan and Iran
are poised to begin a swap system whereby Kazakhstan would send its
crude
oil by ship to the Iranian port of Neka, where it would travel by
pipeline
to a refinery at Tabriz to be refined and consumed locally. In
exchange,
Kazakhstan would receive the same volume ready for export at an Iranian
port in the Persian Gulf. Kazakhstan and Iran signed an agreement in
1996
under which Kazakhstan must swap up to 120,000 bbl/d through Iran by
2006.
NATURAL GAS (more)
Iran has been involved in a border dispute with
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia over demarcation of the border through the
northern
Gulf continental shelf. This region contains the 7-13-Tcf Dorra
natural gas field, which
Iran had begun drilling in early 2000 but stopped after complaints by
Kuwait.
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait (which do not recognize Iran's claims to Dorra)
signed a bilateral agreement in July 2000 on dividing up the field
equally
between the two countries. In early 2002, there were
reports that Saudi Arabia and
Kuwait
were planning to develop Dorra even without an agreement with Iran.
The dual Aghar-Dalan field development has been
one
of National Iranian Gas Company's recent successful natural gas
utilization
projects. Since coming online in mid-1995, the Aghar and Dalan fields
have produced
approximately 600 Mmcf/d and 800 Mmcf/d, respectively. Natural gas from
both fields is processed at a $300 million facility at the Dalan field,
which
is also the location of a 40-MW, natural-gas-fired power plant. Most of
the treated natural gas from the Dalan processing plant is carried
through a 212-mile
pipeline
for re-injection in the Marun field and other oil fields in Khuzestan
province.
Natural Gas Trade (more)
Although India and Iran in 1993 signed an MOU on
an overland natural gas pipeline, regional political and security
concerns
to date have blocked completion of a feasibility study.
Meanwhile, in February
2002, Iran and Pakistan signed an MOU on a pre-feasibility study for a
possible 1,600-mile, $4 billion gas pipeline from southern Iran to
southeastern Pakistan and on to
India. An offshore route bypassing Pakistan is under study by
Snamprogetti
of Italy, but this could prove to be far too expensive to be
feasible. Another
possibility would involve LNG exports to India. In January 2003, the
leaders
of Iran and India signed an MOU on energy cooperation, including the
LNG option.
Besides natural gas exports, Iran also has
discussed
importing natural gas from Azerbaijan, and already imports some natural
gas from Turkmenistan. This natural gas is for use in Iran's northern
areas, far from
the country's main natural gas reserves in the south. In December 1997,
Turkmenistan launched the $190 million Korpezhe-Kurt Kui pipeline to
Iran, the first
natural
gas export pipeline in Central Asia to bypass Russia. ccording to terms
of the 25-year contract between the two countries, Iran will take
between 177 Bcf and
212 Bcf of natural gas from Turkmenistan annually, with 35% of Turkmen
supplies allocated as payment for Iran's contribution to building the
pipeline.
<>In December 2001, the presidents of Turkmenistan
and Armenia reached an agreement by which Turkmenistan will supply up
to
70.6 Bcf per year of natural gas to Armenia via the Korpezhe-Kurt Kui
pipeline and
across Iran. Implementation of this deal is contingent on the
construction
of a long-delayed Iran-Armenia natural gas pipeline (in December 2001,
Iran and
Armenia signed a deal to build this line at a cost of around $120
million).
COAL
Despite a contraction of the industry since the breakup of the Soviet
Union, Kazakhstan remains a major coal producer, consumer, and
exporter.
Kazakhstan was the third largest coal producer in the Soviet Union,
trailing
only Russia and Ukraine
in total output. Between 1992 and 1999, however, Kazakh coal
production,
which is centered in the Karaganda and Ekibastuz basins, declined 54%,
from 139.5 million short tons (Mmst) to 64.2 Mmst. Coal production
declined
in large part because of nonpayment by customers and the lack of
incentives
to export to Russia (due to high rail tariffs for transporting coal
within
Russia), as well as due to the collapse of domestic demand. Kazakh coal
consumption fell nearly 58%--from 94.2 Mmst to 39.5 Mmst--during the
same
time period.
This decline is significant because coal accounted for about half of
all primary energy consumption in Kazakhstan during 1991-1999. In
addition,
net exports to other former Soviet republics declined by two-thirds
from
1991 to 1995 before beginning a modest recovery from 1996 to 2000. This
decline in markets forced a severe cut in both coal production from
Karaganda,
which has a number of underground mines that produce high-quality
coking
coal. The high cost of extraction, combined with the drop in demand,
forced
a number of mines to close between 1991 and 1997. However, mines in
Ekibastuz,
the largest-producing area in Kazakhstan and the third largest coal
basin
in the former Soviet Union, have remained open and competitive because
several
mines have been largely privatized.
After nearly a decade of decline, Kazakh coal production is expected
to increase in 2001. Kazakh Minister for Energy and Natural Resources
Minister
Vladimir Shkolnik said in January 2001 that Kazakhstan plans to produce
up to 80.5 Mmst of coal in 2001. Preliminary data for 2000 show that
the
country's production increased 75 Mmst, nearly a 17% increase over
1999.
According to Kazakh officials, the Vostochny opencast mine produced
10.6
Mmst of coal in January-September 2000 (against 7.6 Mmst in the same
period
of 1999, an increase of 39%). In the first two months of 2001, the
Vostochny
mine produced 3.7 Mmst of coal, a 35.4% increase more than in the same
period of 2000. In addition, Bogatyr Access Komir (BAK) reported
producing
35.8 Mmst of coal in 2000, 23.1 Mmst at the Bogatyr strip mine (35%
more
than in 1999) and 12.7 Mmst at the Severny strip mine (20% more than
1999).
BAK said its 2001 coal production is slated to rise by 20%, thanks to
further
expansion at the Bogatyr mine.
Despite a drop in net exports, Kazakhstan is still the largest
exporter
of coal to the other former Soviet republics, accounting for almost
half
of the coal shipments among the republics. Russia remains the largest
recipient
of Kazakh coal, followed by Ukraine. The Russian utilities
Sverdlovskenergo
and Chelyabenergo are major consumers of sub-bituminous coal from the
Ekibastuz
basin, and Sverdlovskenergo likely will continue to import coal from
Kazakhstan
since it acquired two Kazakh mines in 1996 as payment for unpaid debts
for power supplied to Kazakhstan. In March 2001, Russia announced plans
to import at least 30 Mmst to 40 Mmst of coal from Kazakhstan per year,
possibly more, depending on the scale of Russia's economic growth.
Kazakhstan also has arranged to export coal to Kyrgyzstan.
In November 2000, the two countries agreed that Kazakhstan would
provide
Kyrgyzstan with 50,000 tons of coal and other fuel supplies before the
end of 2000 in return for 650 million kilowatt-hours of electricity
from
Kyrgyzstan in the spring of 2001.
ELECTRICITY
Kazakhstan's power generation and consumption have both been on the
decline since the country received its independence in 1991. From a
1992
level of 86.2 billion kilowatt-hours (Bkwh), Kazakhstan's electricity
consumption
dropped to 44.1 Bkwh in 1999, primarily due to a drop in demand from
the
industrial sector as output fell in the wake of the collapse of the
Soviet
Union. Kazakhstan's power generation also has experienced an annual
decline
since independence--the country's total 1999 generation of 44.4 Bkwh
was
only 56% of its 1992 level of 78.6 Bkwh.
Kazakhstan has 54 fossil-fuel powered plants, five hydroelectric
power
stations, and a nuclear plant at Aktau. Much of Kazakhstan's generating
equipment is old, inefficient, and lacking in modern pollution
controls.
Kazakhstan's industrialized north consumes about 70% of the country's
electricity,
and most of Kazakhstan's electricity is generated by coal-fired plants
concentrated in the North that burn a dirty, high-ash coal.
Due to its vast, sparsely populated land area, Soviet planners
developed
Kazakhstan's electricity transmission and distribution system to
connect
to separate networks: to the Russian network in the North (to Siberian
Russia) and northwest (to European Russia), and to the Central Asian
network
in the South (Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan). Following independence,
state-run
Kazakhstanenergo inherited responsibility for operating the country's
deteriorating
electricity sector and its separate networks. As part of Kazakhstan's
move
to a market-based economy, in July 1997 Kazakhstanenergo was divested
of
its power generation facilities and renamed the Kazakhstan Electricity
Grid Operating Company (KEGOC). Kazakhstan has proceeded with
privatization
of power plants and regional electricity distribution companies in an
effort
to reform the power sector.
Although Kazakhstan now technically generates enough electricity to
meet its demand, the country has suffered from frequent power shortages
since 1992 due to the sector's deteriorating infrastructure. The
separation
of networks means that Kazakhstan is both an exporter and importer of
electricity
in accordance with regional needs. KEGOC works with UES (Russia) in the
western and northern parts of Kazakhstan and with the national energy
companies
of Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan,
and Uzbekistan in the South. Imports from Russia and Kyrgyzstan account
for over 10% of domestic consumption, with Uzbekistan also exporting
small
amounts of power to Kazakhstan. Payment for imported power has been an
issue, and both Russian and Kyrgyz suppliers have cut power several
times
due to unpaid bills. In addition, in November 2000, Kazakhstan's
Supreme
Court found KEGOC guilty of violating customs rules and fined the
company
more than $2 million for the transit of undeclared electricity from
Russia
in 1999.
In order to reduce its dependence on expensive, imported electricity
supplies, Kazakhstan has made plans to construct five new combined heat
and power stations: the 150-MW Uralskaya TETS, the 450-MW Aktyubinskaya
TETS, the 300-MW Mainakskaya GES, the 1,280-MW Yuzhno-Kazakhstanskaya
TETS,
and the 500 MW Zapadno-Kazakhstanskaya TETS-1. In addition, AES (U.S.)
expects to get $30 million from the EBRD to reconstruct and modernize
the
Ust-Kamenogorsk hydroelectric and heat and power plants and the Shulba
hydroelectric plant. Also, a Kazakh-Russian joint venture was set up at
Ekibastuz State Regional Power Station 2 in Pavlodar region, where one
350-MW generator is operational and a second was scheduled to be
overhauled.
The projected capacity of each of the generators is 500 MW.
Kazakhstan had planned to build a new nuclear power station near
Lake
Balkash, with three units of 640 MW each, but in September 2000 the
Kazakh
government rejected the blueprints and shelved the project, citing cost
and safety concerns, as well as public opinion opposed to the nuclear
plant.
Nevertheless, Prime Minister Kasymzhomart Tokayev noted that it is
necessary
"that the public gets used to the idea" of the importance of developing
Kazakh nuclear power engineering as a cleaner alternative to
coal-generating
power plants.
COUNTRY OVERVIEW
President: Nursultan Nazarbayev (chairman of the Supreme Soviet
from February 22, 1990; elected president December 1, 1991; re-elected
to a seven-year term on January 10, 1999)
Prime Minister: Kasymzhomart Tokayev (since October 2, 1999)
Independence: December 16, 1991; National holiday: Day of the
Republic October 25, 1990 (date on which Kazakhstan declared its
sovereignty)
Population (7/00E): 16.7 million
Location: Central Asia, bordering the Caspian Sea, Russia,
Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and China
Size: 1,052,100 sq. miles (slightly less than four times the
size of Texas)
Major Cities: Almaty; Astana (capital, moved from Almaty in
December 1998); Karaganda; Shymkent
Languages: Kazakh (Qazaq, state language), Russian (official,
used in everyday business)
Ethnic Groups (1996E): Kazakh (Qazaq) 46%, Russian 34.7%,
Ukrainian
4.9%, German 3.1%, Uzbek 2.3%, Tatar 1.9%, other 7.1%
Religion: Muslim 47%, Russian Orthodox 44%, Protestant 2%, other
7%
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Minister of Finance: Mazhit Yesenbayev
Minister of Economy & Trade: Zhaksibek Kulekeyev
Currency: Tenge
Market Exchange Rate (4/30/2001): US $1=145.8 Tenge
Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (2000E): $18.3 billion;
(2001E):
$19.8 billion
Real GDP Growth Rate (2000E): 9.6%; (2001E): 5.5%
Inflation Rate (Change in Consumer Prices, Dec. 1999-Dec. 2000E):
9.8%; (2001E): 8.0%
Official Unemployment Rate (2000E):3.7%
Current Account Balance (2000E): $1.25 billion
; (2001E): $1.04 billion
Major Trading Partners: Russia, Ukraine, U.S., Uzbekistan,
Turkey,
U.K., Germany, South Korea, China
Merchandise Exports (2000E): $9.8 billion; (2001E):
$10.9
billion
Merchandise Imports (2000E): $7.7 billion; (2001E): $9.0
billion
Merchandise Trade Balance (2000E): $2.1 billion; (2001E):
$1.9 billion
Major Exports: oil, ferrous and nonferrous metals, machinery,
chemicals, grain, wool, meat, coal
Major Imports: machinery and parts, industrial materials, oil
and gas, vehicles
Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves (2000E): $2.1 billion
External Debt (12/00E): $12.3 billion
ENERGY OVERVIEW
Minister of Energy & Natural Resources: Vladimir Shkolnik
Chairman, Kazakhoil National Oil & Gas Company: Nurlan
Balgimbayev
Proven Oil Reserves (2000E): 10.0-17.6 billion barrels
Oil Production (2000E): 693,000 bbl/d, of which 598,000 bbl/d
is crude oil; (2000E): 771,000 bbl/d
Oil Consumption (2000E): 220,000 bbl/d
Net Oil Exports (2000E): 452,000 bbl/d
Crude Oil Refining Capacity (1/1/2001E): 427,000 bbl/d
Natural Gas Reserves (2000E): 65-70 trillion cubic feet
Natural Gas Production (1999E): 162 billion cubic feet (Bcf)
Natural Gas Consumption (1999E): 480 Bcf
Net Natural Gas Imports (1999E): 318 Bcf
Coal Reserves (1999E): 37.5 billion short tons, of which 34.2
billion is anthracite and bituminous
Coal Production (1999E): 64.2 million short tons (Mmst); (2000E):
75 Mmst
Coal Consumption (1999E): 39.5 Mmst
Electric Generation Capacity (1999E): 17.4 gigawatts
Electricity Generation (1999E): 44.4 billion kilowatt-hours
(Bkwh)
Electricity Consumption (1999E): 44.1 Bkwh
ENVIRONMENTAL OVERVIEW
Minister of Natural Resources & Environmental Protection:Andar
Shukputov
Total Energy Consumption (1999E): 1.5 quadrillion Btu* (0.4%
of world total energy consumption)
Energy-Related Carbon Emissions (1999E): 26.6 million metric
tons of carbon (0.4% of world total carbon emissions)
Per Capita Energy Consumption (1999E): 97.5 million Btu (vs
U.S. value of 355.8 million Btu)
Per Capita Carbon Emissions (1999E): 1.7 metric tons of carbon
(vs U.S. value of 5.5 metric tons of carbon)
Energy Intensity (1999E): 58,392 Btu/ $1990 (vs U.S. value of
12,638 Btu/ $1990)**
Carbon Intensity (1999E): 1.1 metric tons of carbon/thousand
$1990 (vs U.S. value of 0.19 metric tons/thousand $1990)**
Sectoral Share of Energy Consumption (1998E): Industrial
(52.6%),
Transportation (41.8%), Residential (5.5%), Commercial (0.0%)
Sectoral Share of Carbon Emissions (1998E): Industrial (56.3%),
Transportation (38.1%), Residential (5.6%), Commercial (0.0%)
Fuel Share of Energy Consumption (1999E): Coal (29.9%), Oil
(29.5%), Natural Gas (34.5%)
Fuel Share of Carbon Emissions (1999E): Coal (40.8%), Oil
(32.0%),
Natural Gas (27.3%)
Renewable Energy Consumption (1998E): 66 trillion Btu* (6%
decrease
from 1997)
Number of People per Motor Vehicle (1998): 12.2 (vs U.S. value
of 1.3)
Status in Climate Change Negotiations: Non-Annex I country under
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (ratified May
17th, 1995). Signatory to the Kyoto Protocol (March 12th, 1999).
Major Environmental Issues: Radioactive or toxic chemical sites
associated with its former defense industries and test ranges are found
throughout the country and pose health risks for humans and animals;
industrial
pollution is severe in some cities; because the two main rivers which
flowed
into the Aral Sea have been diverted for irrigation, it is drying up
and
leaving behind a harmful layer of chemical pesticides and natural
salts;
these substances are then picked up by the wind and blown into noxious
dust storms; pollution in the Caspian Sea; soil pollution from overuse
of agricultural chemicals and salination from faulty irrigation
practices.
Major International Environmental Agreements: A party to
Conventions
on Biodiversity, Climate Change, Desertification, Endangered Species,
Ozone
Layer Protection, Ship Pollution.
* The total energy consumption statistic includes petroleum, dry
natural
gas, coal, net hydro, nuclear, geothermal, solar and wind electric
power.
The renewable energy consumption statistic is based on International
Energy
Agency (IEA) data and includes hydropower, solar, wind, tide,
geothermal,
solid biomass and animal products, biomass gas and liquids, industrial
and municipal wastes. Sectoral shares of energy consumption and carbon
emissions are also based on IEA data.
**GDP based on EIA International Energy Annual 1998
ENERGY INDUSTRY
Organization: Kazakhoil National Oil and Gas Company;
KazTransOil
(state oil pipeline company); KazTransGaz (state natural gas pipeline
company);
Kazakhstanugol Corporation (state coal company); Kazakhstan Electricity
Grid Operating Company (KEGOC)
Major Oil and Gas Fields: Tengiz (mostly oil), Karachaganak
(mostly gas), Kashagan (oil), Uzen, Korolev, Tenge, Uritau (gas),
Zhanazhol
Major Oil Ports: Atyrau and Aktau on the Caspian Sea
Oil Export Pipelines: Tengiz-Novorosiissk (Russia);
Uzen-Atyrau-Samara
(Russia); Kenkyak-Orsk (Russia) line that transports oil from the
Aktyubinsk
fields to the Orsk refinery
Major Oil Refineries (crude oil refining capacity): Pavlodar
(162,666 bbl/d); Atyrau (104,427 bbl/d); Shymkent (160,000 bbl/d)
Major Power Plants (capacity): Ekibastuz No.1 (4,000 megawatts,
MW), Yermak (2,400 MW), Dzhambul (1,230 MW)