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VI.  CONSUMPTION OF NATURAL GAS IN DIFFERENT SECTORS AND THEIR GROWTH (6,7,12-16, 24)

As already stated in the introduction, the use of natural gas began in 1960; since then the consumption and its growth have been on the rise. There have been a step jump in gas consumption and its growth every time with the commissioning of a fertilizer complex or a gas fuelled power plant. Figure 6.1 shows the sector wise cumulative consumption of natural gas since 1960.

FIGURE 6.1: SECTORWISE NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION

6.1 Urea Fertilizer Sector

Seven grass-roots urea complexes now in operation have a combined connected demand of 289 MMSCFD. Table 6.1 and Figure 6.2 show the growth of the sector. During 1988-1997 the share of this sector accounted for 32 to 37% of the total gas consumed.

TABLE 6.1: CONNECTED LOAD OF GAS FOR FERTILIZER SECTOR

A gas load of 67 MMSCFD was added by the fertilizer sector during 1986-1987 with the commissioning of PUFF and CUFL while an additional load of 108 MMSCFD was added during 1991-94 when JFCL and KAFCO came on-stream. The average daily demands of gas by the sector for the years 1986, 1989 and 1996 were 103, 154 and 213 MMSCFD respectively against the contracted loads of 121, 171 and 289 MMSCFD respectively. During the next five years up to 2005, the most optimistic annual consumption of gas would be 90 BCF per year by this sector.

The ammonia-urea complexes in Bangladesh were designed to operate 310-330 days a year. Actual on-stream days achieved have been below the design days for most of the plants for most of the year since their commercial operation. Moreover, the connected gas load was established with a margin of 9-11% above the design gas consumption. Average consumption of gas today by these plants is about 85% of the connected load. Operation of the plants at design capacity will not, however, lead to extra consumption of gas annually as it will be more energy efficient at design capacity having less number of plant shutdowns.

6.2 Power Sector

There are today nine major installations where electric power is generated using natural gas as fuel under PDB. Some independent power producers (IPP) are also engaged in electric power generation and they have been operating some gas fuelled power plants. The gas fuelled electricity generation capacity in June 2001 was 2970 MW with the largest installation at Ghorasal with the installed capacity of 950 MW. IPPs’ gas based generation capacity is 390 MW. Table 6.2 and Figure 6.3 show the growth of natural gas based power plants since 1967.

TABLE 6.2: GROWTH OF NATURAL GAS FUELLED POWER PLANTS

During 1986-90 1101 MW generation capacity was added; 510 MW was added during 1991-95 and 790 MW has been added since 1996. The majority of the gas fired steam power plants have been procured from Russia and China; and these account for 1370 MW excluding the 210 MW unit under construction at Siddirgonj. IPPs generate electricity using GTs.

Figure 6.3: Growth of GAS FUELLED POWER PLANTS

The average demands of gas for power generation for 1985, 1986, 1989, 1996 and 1999 were 109, 142, 203, 303, and 375 MMSCFD respectively. The on-stream factor (annual plant factor) of the gas fuelled power plants ranges between 35 and 78%.

The typical daily load curve for electric power indicates that the duration of peak demand is about 5 hours beginning at about 6 pm and ending at around at 11 pm (16). The demand exceeds the average demand by about 50%.

The major consumers of electricity belong to the industrial and residential sectors. In 1994-95 the industry and residential sectors used approximately 41 and 39% respectively of the total electricity consumed. The industry sector showed a growth of 5.2% during 1986-96 while the residential sector grew by 14%. The overall growth of consumption during the same decade was 7.7%.

The consumption of electricity in the agriculture sector during the past fifteen years ranged between 7.7 and 17% of the total consumption with no definite trend. Electricity demand for agriculture (mostly for operating pumps) is a managed load and does not clash with the peak load. The demand is influenced by the rainfall during farming season. However, the consumption of electricity and diesel in agriculture for irrigation has been on the rise over the years.

6.3 Industry Sector

The industry sector during the current decade has been consuming 8 to 12% of the total gas consumption. Major application areas include: steam generation, captive power and process (heating media and heat source/fuel). When BGSL had made its gas available in Chittagong area, industries using furnace oil, diesel or other liquid fuels immediately switched over to gas. These include: ERL, TSP, KPM, KRC, Osmania Glass, Chittagong Steel Mills, Dry Dock, etc. The sector has shown a growth of 3.75% during the decade. Table 6.3 lists the consumption of gas and its growth in this sector during 1991-2000 according to the three gas transmission and distribution companies.

TABLE 6.3: CONSUMPTION OF GAS BY INDUSTRY SECTOR DURING 1990-2000

(served by 3 Gas Companies)

The consumption of gas in the franchise areas of BGSL and JGTDCL in past five years has been rather stagnant and does not show any noticeable growth. On the other hand, the consumption of in the franchise areas of TGTDCL during 1991-2000 has shown a steady growth of gas consumption. It is likely that most of the industries have been installing gas engine driven generators as captive power source instead of being dependent on PDB’s unreliable supply. After a few year this growth will die down.

The chemical process plants in Bangladesh normally generate their own electric power independent of the supply from PDB for reliability and economy. BCIC in its larger chemical process plants including fertilizer, pulp & paper, cement etc. has an installed generation capacity of 230MW including stand-by generators. However, the gas load for power generation is included in the connected load of the plant. A modern ammonia-urea complex having a capacity of 500,000 ton urea/year would require and generate about 8-10 MW electric power. The requirement of electric power for the manufacturing sub-sectors such as textile, jute and RMG is even less based on per unit total capital investment compared to process industries. These industries are likely to have generators based on dual fuels requiring gas supply. Many of these industries do not operate in three shifts a day. Whenever the stand-by or the captive generators are  operated, the power from PDB is not used. It leads to a high peak gas demand while the actual gas consumption remains about the same.

6.4 Domestic Sector

The domestic consumers use gas as a fuel for cooking mainly. In recent years some affluent customers have been using gas for stand-by generators and raising hot water. This sector during the current decade has been using 8 to 10% of the total gas consumption. The number of domestic consumers now stands approximately at 900,000. The three transmission and distribution companies can provide gas connection to about 70,000 new customers each year (TGTDCL: 50,000, BGSL: 15,000 and JGTDCL: 5,000). This sector has shown a growth of about 11.7% during 1986-95.

According to TGTDCL, in the year 1996-97, a domestic consumer consumed about 82 SCFD. Table 6.4 shows the growth of this sector during 1991-2000 in the franchise areas of the transmission and distribution companies.

TABLE 6.4: CONSUMPTION OF GAS BY DOMESTIC SECTOR DURING 1991-2000

(served by 3 Gas Companies)

6.5 Commercial Sector and Seasonal Users

The commercial sector accounts for less than 1.5% of the total gas consumption and this has not shown significant growth during the current decade. The seasonal users, mainly the brick fields, consume a small quantity of gas during the brick manufacturing season. This is a minor sector for near future.