AN EXPLORATORY REVIEW OF BANGLADESH GAS SECTOR: 
LATEST EVIDENCE AND AREAS OF FURTHER RESEARCH

 Title Page   I     II     III     IV     V     VI     VII     VIII     IX     X     XI

VII.  PROJECTIONS OF GAS DEMAND IN BANGLADESH (1-5, 8, 10-12,18,19, 31)

Since the emergence of Bangladesh, there have been several projections of natural gas demand. These are reported in the planning documents of various plans (five 5-year plans and one 2-year plan), ADB study, Task Force Report, National Energy Policy Report and Petrobangla’s own report/study (1-5, 8-11). These documents while making projections have envisaged considerable annual growth of the power and fertilizer sectors continuously. Some of the important underlying assumptions include:

    ·        7 to 10% increase in gas demand for fertilizer yearly
    ·        10-13% growth of natural gas fuelled power generation yearly
    ·        industrial growth in excess of 7% requiring 7% rise in gas demand yearly
    ·        growth of gas demand to exceed the growth in GDP

Even the popular articles and reports related to gas demand and future need, which have appeared recently in newspapers etc. speak of 10% annual growth of gas demand in Bangladesh.

Figures 7.1 and 7.2 show some of these projections of gas demand since 1973 by the five 5-year plans and different studies as average and peak respectively plus the actual consumption of gas. The First 5-year plan (1973-78) assumed that the power sector by 2000 would consume about 700 MMCFD gas supporting 5000 MW gas fired steam generating power plants at 60% plant factor, and the proven gas reserves of 8.29-9.36 TCF would be exhausted by then (1). In 1973, the generation capacity of gas based power plants was just 317 MW. It is clear that the projected daily demands of gas either as peak or average has always been above the actual consumption by a wide margin. For example, the projected peak daily demands of 1999 according to the Fifth 5-year plan, NEP and Petrobangla are 1470, 1350 and 1112 MMSCFD, respectively, while the actual peak production in March 2000 was 1015 MMSCFD.

Figure 7.1: Projection of gas demand and actual consumption

(daily Average)  

Figure 7.2: Projection of gas demand (daily peak)  

The projected demands in the context of gas reserves have always predicted that the reserves would be exhausted by the end of a particular year (18,19). For example, the latest projection supported by Petrobangla predicts that the gas reserves of 10.46 (excluding Bibiyana and Moulavibazar) would be exhausted by 2015 if the demand grows as projected. This projection assumes that power generation in 2005 will reach 5,264 MW and 11,035 MW in 2015. The same projection further assumes that the fertilizer sector will require additional 234 MMSCFD gas in 2005 for five new urea complexes of CUFL’s size and expansion of CUFL. The projection seems to be highly optimistic.